Princess Victoria - Undefeated since finishing second on debut
There are more things in life beyond the proverbial death and taxation that can be taken for granted, but the outcome of a horse race is never one of them. Too many things can go wrong – but they will surely need to go seriously awry for Princess Victoria not to win the Avontuur Estate Cape Fillies Guineas over 1600m at Kenilworth on Saturday, writes Matthew Lips
Undefeated since finishing second on debut back in January and the undisputed champion two-year-old female of last term, Princess Victoria has swept all before her and showed in no uncertain terms that she has trained on when hacking up the easiest of winners in the Gr 2 Choice Carrier Fillies Championship on her seasonal debut over 1400m four weeks ago. Glen Kotzen’s star could surely have won by a good deal further than the official two lengths had her rider not simply allowed her to coast over the line and she re-opposes seven of the dozen rivals that she beat that day. One possible niggling concern is that Princess Victoria tries 1600m for the first time and would not be the first horse in history to look in total control over 1400m only to flop at a mile, but she has an effortless style of accelerating after cruising along in the early stages of a race and the daughter of Victory Moon has enough stamina in her pedigree to make any concerns about the distance fleeting ones at most.
Miss Ipanema
Miss Ipanema - Has scope to improve
Of those who finished behind Princess Victoria in the Fillies Championship the one with the most scope to step up on that form may be Miss Ipanema. She was making her local debut and was drawn wide, which is always a real disadvantage over 1400m on the Kenilworth “old” course, but she ran on stoutly to finish 3.5 lengths adrift in fourth. Like every other horse in that race she is flattered by her proximity to the winner, but she is entitled to have come on from the outing. The Dennis Drier yard has made a good start to its Cape Town campaign and Miss Ipanema could reverse Fillies Championship form with all bar Princess Victoria at least.
Trinity House
Trinity House is the only horse to have beaten Princess Victoria and was returning from a 23 week lay-off when running on to finish second in the Fillies Championship. She had no chance with the winner and Princess Victoria has very plainly turned out to be the better of the two, but Trinity House is a useful filly in her own right. She may have improved with that seasonal debut effort under the belt and has an obvious chance of again reaching the frame, especially from the 1 draw.
Thunder Dance
Thunder Dance is a promising sort who was only half-a-length behind Trinity House when finishing third in the Fillies Championship. Still lightly raced, she now tries 1600m for the first time and is entitled to relish it as the daughter of parents who were both multiple Gr 1 winners over the distance. Her two wins to date have come in much lesser company, but she is clearly useful and Brett Crawford’s filly has as much right as any other to finish second. Like the others, though, she will need Princess Victoria to run well below her best in order to have a winning chance, even allowing for the improvement which Thunder Dance is almost certainly still making.
Bermuda Sloop
The best of the three in this line-up who didn’t contest the Fillies Championship may be Bermuda Sloop, who is still on the upgrade and who reversed past form with Golden Dawn when just getting up to beat the latter over 2000m at Kenilworth earlier in November. However, Dean Kannemeyer’s filly is probably at her best beyond this distance even if she did win at maiden level over 1600m, and nobody would put Golden Dawn within several light years of her stable companion Princess Victoria in ability.
Ocean’s Swift
Ocean’s Swift hadn’t raced for 14 weeks when she finished around four lengths sixth behind Princess Victoria in the Fillies Championship, but she ran out of steam after racing in touch and is left with a lot to find. She finished 5.5 lengths behind Miss Ipanema in a Gr 1 won by Amanee over 1600m in wet going at Greyville in July and looks to have a good deal to find at this level. The form of the 1400m Listed race which she won at Fairview in June has amounted to very little and others are selected here.
Super Elegant
Super Elegant enjoyed going 1600m for the first time when quickening well and running out the very comfortable winner of a novice plate ten days ago, but she was well weighted against much weaker rivals and needs to do a great deal more here. She could only finish seventh in the Fillies Championship, and while she has already placed three times in Feature races Super Elegant is left with quite a lot to find to make into the frame this time. Dubai Gina is a promising sort who steps into Stakes company for the first time. She ran on well after a short absence when finishing a close third behind progress Feel My Love in a set weights event over 1600m recently, but she faces much tougher opposition here and may in any case really thrive when tried over more than a mile.
Dark Journey and Madame Rooney
The stable companions Dark Journey and Madame Rooney respectively finished fifth and ninth in the Fillies Championship and have a lot to find. Dark Journey reportedly cast a shoe on that occasion and may be able to pull out enough to snatch a minor place. She looks the pick of the two Carl Burger-trained fillies, but a win would come as a very real surprise. Razzle Dazzle Rose made no show when she finished sixth of 11 in a very ordinary fillies handicap over this distance first time out after winning a Durbanville 1200m maiden and should be outclassed even though she is still very lightly raced and may prove better in time than that latest effort.
About The Pace
Ocean’s Swift has won making all and may have no choice but to go up front from her wide draw. Madame Rooney has at times raced from the front, but invariably when fitted with blinkers, which she is not declared to wear here. The probability is that the early pace won’t be hectic, which should suit Princess Victoria and her terrific turn of foot right down to the ground. Already an easy Gr 1 winner over 1200m and plainly not lacking for speed, she is the logical selection to win. Deciding on who will finish closest to her is less straight forward, but we’ll go with Miss Ipanema to improve enough to take second prize ahead of Trinity House, Thunder Dance, and Dark Journey.
