A betting coup was landed in the final race at Turffontein on Thursday when the former Cape-based Plus Four shortened from a 20-1 opening call to start at 5-4 and romped home under Gavin Lerena to win the MR 72 Handicap over 1450m.
Contrary to some conspiracy theorists who seem to believe that the bookmakers know everything, here is a prime example of them getting things totally wrong, with astute and wide awake punters cashing in.
As they say, all is fair in love and war!
Plus Four storms home under Gavin Lerena to make it a winning Highveld debut (Pic – JC Photos)
Having his first start in just under four months, and his first for the CK Racing Team, Plus Four left bookmakers with egg on their faces as he proved the 20-1 was an over-price from the get go, with the turf accountants showing their humanity and somehow failing to take cognizance of his Cape form.
According to information, some players latched on to the opening price and simple supply and demand then took over.
Plus Four subsequently shortened dramatically and quickly in the early market on Wednesday at 6-1, and then on raceday continued to shorten up to the jump.
Good luck to the punters who jumped onto the bargain.
Trainer Candice Dawson told the Sporting Post on Thursday evening that she believed Plus Four was badly overpriced on opening.
“His Cape Town form was fair to some nice horses. And one should consider the way that some Cape horses improve on the Highveld. Gavin Lerena was engaged to ride before he was made a reserve so there was no ‘move’ made from the start. The draw 1 was another huge advantage. Absolutely no stable money went on the horse,” added Candice.
The Stipes confirmed that Plus Four was ridden by Gavin Lerena and this engagement was declared on 26 February 2025 at 08h49.
In the spirit of transparency, Candice Dawson kindly provided us with the pre-race report sent to owners Gary Player and Dave McLean.
It reads: ‘Plus Four is looking and working extremely well. This is his first run for us. With the draw and Gavin aboard he should have a huge chance’
Plus Four won his maiden at Hollywoodbets Durbanville in August 2024.
Here is the post-race interview for some background.
Listen to his original trainer Candice Bass-Robinson’s opinion of him as a younger horse:
The next Turffontein racemeeting is on Saturday 1 March.
