Jackson – Politician Stakes winner Jackson will relish the extra.
After winning the Gr1 Cape Guineas in impressive fashion by 3,25 lengths in December, Variety Club was given a merit rating of 118. A mark, that many, to say the least, consider adventurous. Regardless of whether or not this very talented son of Var will eventually turn out to be worthy of that rating though, he is, even off his previous mark of 110, very well in at the weights in this season’s Cape Derby, writes Steve Furnish.
Joey Ramsden’s charge won three from six in his first season and amongst those successes was victory in the Gr3 Langerman. He was given a three month break after only failing to win the Gr3 Champion Juvenile Stakes in the Eastern Cape by the narrowest of margins next time out and clearly having wintered well he came out and won both the Gr3 Matchem Stakes and the prestigious Gr2 Selangor Cup. His win in the Guineas was a testament to the skills of our champion jockey Anton Marcus. Perfectly placed throughout, Variety Club skipped clear early in the straight and was never sighted thereafter. Exactly the same tactics were adopted in the Queen’s Plate last time out and going through the 200m he was again looking like an easy winner.
The pack headed by Gimmethegreenlight closed in quickly in the latter stages of that event though and he was run out of it late. The Queen’s Plate, as with the Guineas, were both over a mile and now having an extra 400m to travel many will be questioning his ability to see out the trip. His sire Var was a sprinter and none of the progeny of the grandam, who won once over 1200m, went on to score over a mile. With La Massine also seemingly imparting speed rather than stamina, there is indeed cause for concern. Variety Club is taking on a considerably weaker field here on paper though and sure to adopt the same tactics could, especially off a slow pace, pull it off.
Breeding suggests stamina doubts for Guineas winner Variety Club.
Silver Haven
Stable companion Silver Haven progressed quickly after shedding his maiden tag at the second attempt in September and impressed when winning under just hands and heels over a mile in October. He’s performed with credit since being stepped up in class, but he has been well beaten by both Variety Club (twice) and Jackson in his subsequent three outings and although the extra will probably suit, he won’t find it easy here.
Potala Palace
Gauteng based conditioner Michael Azzie has always had a very high regard for his 3yo son of Singspiel Potala Palace and having trained some top class horses in his time one has to take note. He cruised in by six when shedding his maiden tag at just the second attempt and when winning the Gr1 Premiers Champion Stakes over a mile at Greyville in his next outing, it did indeed look as if he might go on to be a champion. What is interesting here is that the fifth placed runner in the Premiers was the subsequent Dingaans winner Silver Flyer, and the third horse home in that event was the recent Queen’s Plate winner Gimmethegreenlight. On his return from a four month break in November, Potala Palace could be forgiven for only scraping home when thrown in at the weights in a graduation event, but he was then beaten fair and square in both the Dingaans and a MR94 Handicap. On his efforts this term then he is not easy to fancy, but Michael has always said that the Derby would be his trip, and were he to repeat his Premier’s run here, he would be a very serious runner.
Mushreq
Also behind Potala Palace in the Premiers was globetrotter Mike De Kock’s sole representative in the race Mushreq. This son of Flying Spur was reported as coughing in that event though and took no interest in racing. He impressed when cruising in by seven over 1800m in novice company in his third run of this campaign in December and he gave the impression in that event that the extra 200m here would be to his liking. He was very comfortably beaten by his stable companion Silver Flyer in the Dingaans in his previous outing though, and having been beaten fair and square by the up and coming Jackson last time out, albeit on 3kg worse terms, he does look to have a bit to find here.
Jackson
The dark horse of the race is undoubtedly the aforementioned Jackson. Clearly very highly regarded from day one, this son of Dynasty was backed as if unbeatable (5/1 into 6/10) on debut and although he could only finish a well beaten fifth that day, he has been nothing short of impressive since. Indeed, he’s won all three starts and the manner in which he disposed of his eleven rivals in the listed Politician Stakes over 1800m at this circuit just three ago would suggest that he will relish every extra inch of today’s trip. Brett Crawford’s charge is now taking a considerable leap up in class, but further improvement looks sure to be forthcoming and he could turn out to be anything.
Changingoftheguard
Sparingly raced since making a very promising debut in May, Justin Snaith’s charge has silently been progressing very nicely and has shown improvement with each start. He beat some very useful local 3yo’s with authority when landing the listed Racing Association Stakes over 1600m in the Eastern Cape on his seasonal debut, and he was then only picked off in the dying strides when a runner up to the subsequent Gr2 Peninsula Handicap winner Polar Bound next time out. He does look held on his latest effort behind Jackson, but he didn’t get the clearest of runs in that event and could still improve.
Stone Pine
The highest rated of trainer Glen Kotzen’s two runners in the race is Stone Pine and with Sean Cormack in the saddle one would expect him to be the stable elect. Usually one to race up with the speed, Stone Pine has shown promise and has fully deserved his two wins. He’s bumped some good sorts since gaining the latest of those successes and is sure to win more races. He does now take a big step up in class here though, and will do well to make the frame.
Agarkar
At first glance one might wonder what Agarkar is doing here having failed to find the winner’s enclosure in seven outings since shedding his maiden tag at the second attempt in May, but that doesn’t quite tell the whole story. Indeed, he was running on stoutly when third beaten just 2,5 lengths in the Langerman. He travels 2000m for the first time here. It will be interesting to see how he goes.
Solar Captain
As with Agarkar, Mike Bass’ charge has only managed to find success in the maiden ranks thus far. He has shown flashes of real ability though and he has in the main been keeping very good company. He was thought good enough to contest the Gr3 Cape Classic in October and only beaten 3,35 lengths by the winner Depardieu he was far from disgraced. This son of Captain Al was receiving 7kg from the second horse Gimmethegreenlight in that event though and on a line through that one, and his second placing to Jackson last time out, he has plenty to find here.
Tribal Dance
If there is to be a major upset here then Vaughan Marshall’s charge could be the one to cause it. Priced up at 50/1 on writing, this lightly raced son of Tiger Dance commands a fair turn of foot and he hasn’t had the best of luck in running. Indeed, he took a bump at the start and then had to ease early on before running on into third in his penultimate start and he was again squeezed out at the start when running on into third behind Jackson last time out. He can still improve plenty and the extra here is sure to suit.
Punta Arenas
As with a number of the runners here, Stan Elley’s charge has been progressing well and interestingly, he is the only member of the twelve horse party to have previously raced over 2000m. He ran on well when winning over today’s distance in December, but either side of that success he has been comfortably beaten by other runners in this race. Further improvement is sure to be forthcoming, but he won’t find it easy to turn the tables.
About The Pace
With no out and out front runners in the field there has to be concerns about the pace. Potala Palace and Mushreq have both done well racing up front and interestingly, so has Variety Club. Stamina doubts appear to be aplenty for Variety Club, so a slow pace would suit. Jackson on the other hand will benefit from a good pace. The bookies have priced up the event as a boat race between the two and they could well be right.
