Making The Right Choices
Nothing is more important in horseracing than picking the right horse. That simple maxim applies whether you are punting horses or buying them. Random swipes in the dark may have worked on the odd occasion in the past with freak bargain buys of the likes of JJ The Jet Plane, but a scientific ordered approach dramatically reduces risk.
It is always best in keeping an open mind when it comes to judging individual approaches and systems utilised to select potential winning racehorses. In the often risky and confusing, and slightly emotional environment of the auction arena, one needs to sift the wheat from the chaff. One man who looks to have hit on a winner with his no-frills approach is former trainer Allen Roux.
Enthusiasts may recall the Anderson-Roux training partnership, of days gone by.Employed on a contract basis for the Thoroughbred Breeders’ Association, Allen established their Museum of SA Racing & Breeding, and assisted the legendary John Kramer doing selections for the Cape Premier Sale and National Yearling Sale for 2011.
His selection theory was not born yesterday and it stems from a passion which started decades ago when he rode as a show-jumper and wanted to identify which body-features resulted in one horse being capable of jumping at A-Grade level, whilst most others were condemned to languishing in the lower grades. His curiosity and hunger for understanding the mehanics has never waned, but it is now entirely focused on the racehorse.
“ I trained, mainly for owner-breeder David Makins, for 16 years. It was a very happy arrangement. David was never a buyer though and I merely trained his home-breds, by Allied Flag and Anytime. I also had the pleasure of training Jamaica. Despite not being a commercial trainer/buyer, the passion for defining the physiological difference between the Classic racehorse and the horse which is condemned to thirty fruitless races as a Maiden, has persisted. I have regularly attended the various Sales, and always examined the majority of the Yearlings or two year-olds on offer. These would then be rated and recorded.”
Proven ability to select on conformation is the key to such a project. Allen’s rating system has been enhanced since 2009 – as a result of carefully analysing the body-features of around 100 of the great racehorses of the past.
Let’s look at some of the features of his system:
The Special Combination of Traits was a feature he used to associate with a particular stallion. He notes this feature in his catalogue, wherever he observes it. He confirms that he was astounded by how well horses with this trait performed, besides finding it to be extremely common amongst the great horses of the past.
His Physical Conformation Traits are the musculo-skeletal parts responsible for the galloping mechanism of the horse. Correctness of legs is not his primary interest.
On understanding his terms of reference, he defines his labels. ‘Average’ horses hover in the Merit Rating range of 60 to 70. Likely to win one or two races at a major centre in time, but not against high-class types passing through the maidens. ‘Poor’ horses fall below a Merit Rating of 60 and require very weak fields or a minor centre if they are to win at all.
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Using the 2009 National Yearling Sale as a measure and platform, Allen utilises a few general approaches:
What chance did you have if you picked a yearling off the 2009 National Yearling Sale (now 4yo’s) on a purely RANDOM basis? This is as good a way as most of the pedigree and individual preference systems.
The results (in terms of the Jockey Club Merit Rating system) would be:
Good to Top Horses (MR 80’s – MR 100’s) – 22%
Average Horses ( MR 60’s – MR 70’s) – 45%
Poor & Unraced (MR 0 – MR 50’s) – 33%
Sale Average R294 000
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What chance did you have if you simply bought all 48 JET MASTER yearlings?
Good to Top Horses (MR 80’s – MR 100’s) – 29%
Average Horses ( MR 60’s – MR 70’s) – 38%
Poor & Unraced (MR 0 – MR 50’s) – 33%
Sale Average R410 000
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Immediately after the 2009 sale, Allen published his PHYSICAL CONFORMATION ratings of 509 yearlings on that sale. How did the top 40 fare?
Good to Top Horses (MR 80’s – MR 100’s) – 33%
Average Horses ( MR 60’s – MR 70’s) – 52%
Poor & Unraced (MR 0 – MR 50’s) – 15%
Sale Average R354 000
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Not bad, but certain details in Allen’s catalogue reveal that a SPECIAL TRAIT COMBINATION gives the following results for 23 yearlings:
Good to Top Horses (MR 80’s – MR 100’s) – 57%
Average Horses ( MR 60’s – MR 70’s) – 30%
Poor & Unraced (MR 0 – MR 50’s) – 13%
Sale Average R402 000
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(NB – all percentages/stats quoted above, relate to the group of 509 yearlings that Allen actually saw at the sale)
Allen has been particularly interested in defining the physical conformation traits of superior horses since he stopped training three years ago. He has also investigated breeding genetics in considerable detail – especially as to how the genes can be harnessed to re-produce (and even up-grade) the high class racehorse.
The National Yearling Sale will be held from Friday 27th to 29th April at the TBA Sales Complex in Germiston. Saturday 28th April is a raceday at Turffontein. 467 lots have been catalogued.
The catalogue is now available online at www.tba.co.za
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Morgenrood Wins Gr 2
Brandon Morgenrood
Top Western Cape –based heavyweight jockey Brandon Morgenrood has settled in well after just two Mauritius race meetings and rode the winner of the MTC’s first 2012 feature last Saturday.
After a frustrating spell of close seconds at his first meeting, Morgenrood gave a hint of great things to come when he steered the former Joey Ramsden gelding Il Saggiatore to a great win in the Gr2 Kia Motors Duchess Of York Cup run over 1400m Saturday. Punters will remember the Galileo gelding, who raced in the Jooste silks, as the controversial boardroom winner of the 2011 Gr2 Gold Circle KZN Derby over Colin Scott’s Sage Throne.
A thrilled Brandon told me on Monday that he didn’t know the horse but had ridden him in work in the build- up to the race. He described him as ‘one of the fitter horses in the race.’
He has had eight rides in the two meetings so far for the one Group win, five seconds and two unplaced efforts.
He tells me that work starts at 5am and finishes off at 07h30. “ I am working very hard and enjoying the stable environment and the horses. My boss Alain Perdrau is a top trainer and a good man who runs a professional outfit. He is assisted by his son Yannick, a top -class guy himself!” he said.
On his adjustment to the unique Champ de mars circuit, he said it made for thrilling racing: “ I’m really enjoying the fast pace of the tight course. It connects well with my riding style, and I thought exactly the opposite and I imagined that I would have had to adapt to the demands of the course,” he said.
As for the lifestyle aspect, he said he was enjoying the stay so far but had not yet had time to unpack his surfboard. He had however been down to the beach every day. He is resident on the island’s north-west coast at Trou aux Biches. Set in a palm-shaded grove, with breathtaking beaches , the resort is described as having earned a reputation for true Mauritius hospitality, warmth, friendliness and the highest standards of service.
Brandon said that the next few months held promise of great excitement and that ‘my best rides are yet to come!”
