Just A Few Questions…

And then there were THREE.

The Ready to Run concept has blossomed in the last two years, going from one, to two, to three auctions – this year held in the space of about a month in the Cape and Gauteng. Massive sale-race incentives are now part of almost every auction sale worth its salt in South Africa, with (this year, at least) the Emperors Palace Ready To Run Sale’s 3.85 million Cup-race the front runner.

Now’s a good time to take a look over our shoulder, to evaluate the meaning of Ready To Run, and to see how things are changing – because changes are big.

Let Q&A lead the way.

 1. How good are the best from Ready to Run?

Imbongi – TFR 119
in UK and Gr2 win, Dubai

The original Ready to Run Sales had less than 200 catalogued 2yo’s. As a result, the horses qualifying for the big Sale-race could be anything. Top quality in some years, less needed to win in others. Things weren’t always easy for buyers, without physically outstanding specimens drawing the attention. Buyers either had to be clever, or just buy a whole bunch and hope for the best in the genetic lottery.

That said, sale-race results of the last seven years make interesting reading when measuring quality, and putting it in the context of traditional yearling sale results:

2007 – fourteen runners, with Umngazi beating race favourite Imbongi; six of the fourteen runners ended up with MRs of 100 and more, and Imbongi campaigned in Dubai & UK (Timeform 119)

2008 – sixteen runners, Smangaliso beating Fenerbahce, with favourite Hurrican Force fourth; not a vintage year, only two of the sixteen getting subsequent MRs over 100

2009 – sixteen runners; Pierre Jourdan got up from Fisani and race favourite Havasha, with Smanjemanje down the field, second-last – they made their mark subsequently in big races, four of them earning millions, and 8 of the sixteen getting MR 100 or more.

2010 – fifteen runners, of which odds-on favourite Igugu finished second to Hollywoodboulevard. These two fillies stood head and shoulders above the rest, and were the only two to subsequently break the MR100 barrier. Igugu became Horse of the Year and campaigned in Dubai & UK (Timeform 114).

2011 – sixteen runners, with favourite Red Barrel doing what was expected from Extra Zero and Blaze Of Fire, a 66/1 shot; the latter, a Gr1 placed stakes winner later on, made it to MR 113 – he was the only one in the field to get over MR 100

2012 – fifteen runners, and a 16/1 winner, Rock Of Arts, who beat Negev and Killua Castle; the latter later became one of two in the field to get MR100 or more

2013 – sixteen runners, and an 8/1 winner, Winter Star; the joint favourites at 7/2 were Judicial (3rd) and Arcetri Pink (5th); four of the runners have so far made it to MR 100

Arcetri Pink – won Gr2 Gauteng Guineas, twice Gr1 placed

The 1400m sale race comes early in November, at the beginning of the classic year for the 3yo’s. Many are still lightly raced and unexposed, which explains why favourites don’t have a great record, and why so many none-winners go on to have fantastic careers.

The proportion of really top horses (to horses sold) at the Ready to Run is quite astonishing when compared to yearling sales – and the best really are good.

 2. Who makes the final field?

What it takes to get into the sale-race varies from year to year. Merit Ratings are published for all runners and give a reasonable indication of ability needed to get a run and a chance to earn (sale races usually reward down to tenth finisher).

Here’s what happened in the past:

• 2007 – lowest of the MRs was 78 (Phunyuka, finished 5th; subsequent career MR was 106), winner Umngazi 85 (career high went to 97)
• 2008 – lowest 73 (Zanzabee, later went to 88, and Trigger); winner Smangaliso was 86 (later went to 89)
• 2009 – lowest 79 (Mluleki); winner Pierre Jourdan was 94 (later went to 116)
• 2010 – lowest 79 (Checheke, later 92); winner Hollywoodboulevard 89 (later 103)
• 2011 – lowest 77 (Moet Magic); winner Red Barrel 80 (later went to 97)
• 2012 – lowest 80 (London Olympics, remained 80); winner Rock Of Arts 88 (later 90)
• 2013 – lowest 85 ( 3 runners; 85 was inflated as NHA had upped all MRs by 6 points); winner Winter Star had 104 (really 98 then)

So in essence, you don’t have to be a star pre-race to be able to get a run. Winning takes more doing, though.

3. Does sex matter?

The people who select the final field for the sale-races are not known, nor is the method they use to select the final field.

There are no published rules on selection. The assumption must be that some sort of performance criteria is applied, but to what extent the sex allowance for fillies in the sale-race is taken into account pre-race – who knows.

We’re in the dark.

At most yearling sales prices for colts usually are higher than those of fillies.

The same is true for the Ready to Run Sales to date. That seems to suggest that the final fields for the races should contain more colts than fillies, and that the results should show more colts as winners. True or false?

The last seven years show this:

• 2007 – 14 runners, 11 colts; first four all colts
• 2008 –16 runners, 8 colts; fillies finish first and third
• 2009 – 16 runners, 11 colts; first, third and fourth are colts
• 2010 – 15 runners, 9 colts; fillies finish first and second
• 2011 – 16 runners, 10 colts;  first, third and fourth are colts
• 2012 – 15 runners, 8 colts;  first, third and fourth are colts
• 2013 – 16 runners, 5 colts;  filly wins, colts fill the places

Does sex matter? When it comes to winning, fillies seem to defy the odds.

4. Do big spenders have an edge?

Igugu – Horse of the Year & Pierre Jourdan – 2nd to Igugu in the July

Although a high price at the sale does not guarantee that the horse will be able to perform at a high level, statistically speaking the more expensive horses have a better chance to make it big.

But real quality (and the high price that goes with it) is not always easy to find at a Ready to Run auction.

So how do prices of winners stack up?

• 2007 – Umngazi, 180k.
• 2008 – Smangaliso, 100k.
• 2009 – Pierre Jourdan, 60k.
• 2010 – Hollywoodboulevard, 900k.
• 2011 – Red Barrel, 350k.
• 2012 – Rock Of Arts, 850k.
• 2013 – Winter Star, 100k.

Among the placed horses in the seven-year period, only two were bought for less than 100k – that were Blaze Of Fire at 70k and Mount Hillaby at 80k.

It seems you have to spend more to get more.

 5. Which stallions sire the winners?

The Emperors Palace Cup is a 7 furlong race on a stiff track, so you might expect the offspring of sprinting sires to be outdone by the more staying stallions.

Here we’re hitting a hurdle. Until this year the majority of the entries were from Summerhill Stud, resulting in an over-representation of stallions from the stud (as well as their Australian imports). Cape sires weren’t represented in good numbers.

All that is set to change following the 2014 renewal of the original sale: there will be far less from Summerhill, and more from the Cape.

Smanjemanje – nose 2nd in the July 2012

Keep that in mind when perusing the stats of the last seven years. The winning sires were (in year-order) Muhtafal, Kahal, Parade Leader, Street Cry, Right Approach, Rock Of Gibraltar, Solskjaer.

Looking at the placed horses, Kahal gets another three representatives, with single numbers for all others: Russian Revival, Galileo, Way West, Stronghold, Mulllins Bay, Lavery, Albarahin, Captain Al, Victory Moon, Churchill Downs, Miesque’s Approval.

Speed, judging from these sire names, clearly isn’t everything.

6. What’s The Future for Ready To Run?

The original thought behind Ready To Run was to give buyers some sort of idea about the running style and ability of the horses on the gallops. In addition, the costly waiting period between time of buying and racing would be much shorter. Buyers would win all round. Well, not quite. The traditional method of selling horses as yearlings remained the preferred method of trading for the big vendors. As a result, the best sires simply weren’t available at Ready to Run sales. If it hadn’t been for Summerhill’s persistence, RtR would have died a long time ago.

And now? Things have changed.

The Ready To Run sale has become the thinking man’s venture. Where it is possible to bring your own ticket to a lottery with big prizes and few tickets. Or to combine a ticket from one lottery with another, with an added chance to get an early pay-off.

To fully understand this, look at the entries for the Ready To Run sales and check their history.

Some are here as pinhooks – bought at an earlier sale with the purpose to resell at a profit. The earlier sale may also have a sale race attached to it, so if the horse turns out to be decent, the big earning opportunity is doubled.

Other horses are here simply to qualify for the valuable sale race – the current owner has no real desire to sell the horse (which was probably bought at an earlier yearling sale). Of course, everything has a price.

With so many different interests and points of view around the sale-rings this week, there’s bound to be fireworks.

For the record, here’s a list of sale-horses who went through the ring at previous sales.

 ,.

7. Do Ready to Run stakes skew the stats?

Of course they do.

But then so do the earnings attributed to the winners of our biggest races, the July, J&B Met, Summer Cup – none of which are contested on level terms. The best horse hardly ever wins.

Statistics are further skewed by the fact that at least half of all prizemoney distributed in South Africa goes to races where conditions apply – conditions which generally ensure the best horses don’t win.

So why single out sale-race figures for exclusion from earnings stats?

It’s all hokum!