Soft Falling Rain - a final Gr1 winner for National Assembly?
For the first time in seven years the SA Nursery will be contested as a Gr1 race again. The powers that be have been playing around with the grading of the Nursery for decades, going from Gr1 to Gr2 – back and forth – without apparent reasoning. Main Man and Goldmark were among the first Gr1 Nursery winners, back in the Eighties.
The first time it was run as Gr2, Empress Club won, followed by Golden Man, and Special Preview. So back to Gr1 it was, with Harry’s Charm the first to benefit. There wasn’t a separate Fillies Nursery then, which is why winners includes the likes of the Empress, the Charm, and later unbeaten champion filly Private Reserve, all able to put the colts firmly in their place. Those were the days.
The last seven SA Nurseries were Gr2, contested over 1160m. As winners show, it needs speed to win this race, while real upsets have been few and far between. Short priced winners abound. Delago Deluxe (9/10), Vacherin (13/20), Warm White Night (1/5), Rebel King (16/10) didn’t raise any eyebrows. Nor did the remaining three, Hit Song and Kavanagh at 33/10, while Tiza at 11/2 was the longest priced of the seven. Aside, three of the last seven winners are now sires at stud, while Tiza is still winning in France – at age ten! The new Gr1 status for the race is certainly not misplaced.
This year all eyes are on unbeaten Soft Falling Rain, winner of three races, and yet to be tested by any opponent. His wins all came with consummate ease, when ridden by Tshwaro Appie. Because of what is at stake here, the young jockey has replaced by Anton Marcus on the Sheikh Hamdan owned colt.. This is interesting, as De Kock’s regular rider Delpech is on Istiqraar, owned by Sheikh Mohammed. Istiqraar started his career in Natal, winning his second start in impressive fashion. His Gauteng debut was disappointing, as he failed to finish in the first three when War Horse won the Protea Stakes. War Horse is interesting, as he had followed a good debut win with the second to Soft Falling Rain in the Storm Bird Stakes. War Horse was beaten less than a length there, but Soft Falling Rain won with what appeared to be a ton in hand.
War Horse gives another useful link through his Protea Stakes win. He just got the better there of Mogok’s Desire, who had won on debut the time before, by six lengths. Mogok’s Desire ran again second the next time, when narrowly beaten by Zestful (received 3kg), who made a winning first appearance. Mogok’s Desrire was favourite at 12/10, while Zestful started at 12/1.
Taking all those form lines at face value, Zestful emerges as the next-best to Soft Falling Rain, assuming that Zestful will improve on his debut effort.
But there are other sharks in the sea. Zanzamar’s half brother Ziparana made an impressive winning debut over this course and distance in March, when always handy and running on well. He started an easy 6/1 that time, in a field which wasn’t easy to judge on strength. So even though he’s likely to improve on his first effort, that still doesn’t give much idea of how good he could be. The race will tell.
The Paul Peter stable has three runners. There’s poor Cellarmaster, who started at odds-on on all three of his starts to date, and each time found something to beat him (including Soft Falling Rain, by 2 lengths). His stable companion Dundee was backed to 28/10 first time out, in the same race where Mogok’s Desire made his debut. Starting at 12/1, Mogok’s Desire beat Dundee into second, by six lengths. The third of the Peter-trio is Donnie Brasco, who made a very nice winning debut over 1200m at the Vaal. That may not have been a very strong field, but Donnie should improve, and could be anything.
Gavin Smith makes the trip from PE with local E-Cape Nursery winner Greenacres, who won that race very well, at odds of 25/1. It was Greenacres first run as a gelding, following three placed efforts prior to that. It seems gelding did the trick, and with some more improvement Greenacre might well make the frame here.
Another raider is Paul Lafferty’s Love Struck, who won his first start at short odds, then ran two lengths third to Mike De Kock’s Reign As Kings in the Sentinel Stakes at Clairwood in March. He was hanging badly towards the end of that race, and ought to have gone closer. Piere Strydom takes the ride this time. It’s hard to gauge the value of the form Love Struck has shown so far.
In summary, Soft Falling Rain must be the one to beat. Given the excellent sprint winners sired by the now retired National Assembly a Gr1 winning 2yo son should not come as a surprise (and might make up for the misfortune of another son, National Emblem, in this same race almost twenty years ago). Of his fifteen opponents, Zestful and Ziparana might turn out to be the biggest dangers.
