On A Winning Ticket

Published author and an informed and controlled punter, Cape Town resident Vincent James has applied the discipline and logic of his long career in the South African Air Force to expand on his correlation-based analysis of measurable data to predict winners.

A recipient of the Johnnie Walker Award for Great Achievement and a former Captain in the SAAF, the 52 year old Vincent, says he is too busy to be retired, and has as his primary interest quantitative (statistical) analysis.

The Cato Manor-born Vincent says that over 40 years ago he was the ‘tote runner’ for his older brother and friends who had him placing their bets.

“I was never inclined to gambling or spending pocket money I didn’t have. But I enjoyed monitoring their excitement and emotion. And one thing that made an indelible impression on me was that they never won!” he recalls.

He goes on to say that there was an interest and passion from the youngsters that seemed fuelled by sentiment and perceptions. He suggests that those early punting traits, learnt in their youth, became the behaviour of the foundation punters of today – the 50 plus everyday player.

“This jockey’s no good, that trainer doesn’t have winners. And plenty of other impressions. It was hit and miss, and let’s face it a lot of what many guys play today is also based on non scientific ‘facts’. There is an explosion of data available in the 21^st century and one should be using that,” he adds.

Vincent says the handicappers often get it wrong and he feels that there is too little measurement of tipsters.

“I listen to the Tellytrack tipsters. I am not sure that some would stand the test of measurement. One cannot simply wing a prediction based on frivolous perceptions. One cannot take a card of nine races and try and win on every race. In the same vein, some tipsters should rather be selective and sometimes saying nothing and rather listening,” he says.

In his book ‘Horse Race Winning with CET Analysis’, Vincent reveals actual experience with winning tickets as evidence to prove that correlation-based analysis has the capability to predict winning outcomes world-wide. Several events are subjected to correlation analysis from the United Kingdom, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Africa, Mauritius and the United States. Winning tickets are representative of nineteen different racecourses world-wide. The objective of this sample size was to avoid a chance occurrence of winning. Winning at Horse Racing with CET Analysis emphasises winning as a result of correlation analysis with respect to weight, time and distance. Winning tickets include jackpots, trifectas, quartets. The most important aspect being highlighted is how to win. The other being the technicalities that leads to winning.

“I enjoy corresponding with interested folk around the world. And the rate of good luck increases a hundredfold when analysis takes place,” he suggests.

His book, the ‘Mathematics of Horse Racing’ is about an analysis programme that sets out to prove that his innovative quantitative approach, based on the statistical principles of correlation, has a far greater success rate in an industry that eludes most.

Important to note is that at the back end of all information that adds value there lies a system of analysis.

“The reality is that not much can be done with data that has not been processed. The difficulty lies in making sense of all this data by transforming it into information, which implies determining what is relevant and eliminating the irrelevant. Importantly, what exactly does specific data represent and how could we use it to understand and even determine specific outcomes? Or what does present or past data have on future events?”

The correlation program, i.e. the CET Analysis Program, proves its horse racing capability to forecast the best horses that had finished in the top of several horse race meetings – which has not been limited to South Africa but beyond.

‘The Mathematics of Horse Racing’ presents substantive evidence in the form of primarily winning tickets that conclusively proves the accuracy of the CET program to analysis data beyond the present subject of horse racing. Emphasis is twofold – firstly, statistical science and its relationship to the CET methodology and secondly, its application that resulted in the documenting of actual winning tickets.

In ‘Winning with Outsiders at Horse Racing’, Vincent applies correlation analysis to predict outsiders.

The correlation system emphasizes the importance of the relationship between the horses’ weight carried and time it takes to finish a race.

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