The Durban July weights currently have a completely different picture to last year and there is an opportunity for currently lesser performed three-year-olds to avoid the classics and get into the country’s premier race well weighted.
Last year Rainbow Bridge ran in the July off a merit rating of 134, which meant the highest rated three-year-old Linebacker snuck into the handicap off a 124 rating carrying the minimum weight for a three-year-old of 53kg (the wfa allowance for a three-year-old in the July is 2kg).
Cape Guineas winner Double Superlative (Pic – Chase Liebeneberg)
The other three-year-olds all had to carry 53kg too and Kommetdieding (122) was 1kg under sufferance, Rascallion (123) was half-a-kilogram under sufferance and Shah Akbar (119) was 2.5kg under sufferance.
However this year the highest rated horse in the country, Jet Dark, is rated 130, with Kommetdieding one point lower on 129, and the highest rated three-year-old Double Superlative is currently only five points behind his Justin Snaith-trained stablemate on 125, the mark he was given for his WSB Met close up fourth.
As things stand Double Superlative would go into the July carrying 55.5kg presuming Jet Dark runs.
However, there are some talented three-year-olds, who have hitherto either avoided the classics or suffered bad luck in them, and thus likely have suppressed merit ratings. This will give their respective trainers the opportunity to take a non-classic route and get into the July well weighted.
A classic example of this is the Adam Marcus-trained Universal, the Grade 3 Politician Stakes winner, who is currently rated 113.
Double Superlative beat Universal by 4,10 lengths in the Grade 1 Cape Guineas, which on paper puts him 8 points clear of the latter over a 1600m trip. However, that is not taking into account Universal had a bad trip, being caught wide and having to go forward around horses on the turn. Furthermore, he was quite badly hampered by the winner, having been the meat in the sandwich between him and Trip Of Fortune on the outside rail after Double Superlative had shifted outward, an indiscretion which landed jockey Anton Marcus an 18 day suspension.
The Durban July weights currently have a completely different picture to last year and there is an opportunity for currently lesser performed three-year-olds to avoid the classics and get into the country’s premier race well weighted.
Last year Rainbow Bridge ran in the July off a merit rating of 134, which meant the highest rated three-year-old Linebacker snuck into the handicap off a 124 rating carrying the minimum weight for a three-year-old of 53kg (the wfa allowance for a three-year-old in the July is 2kg).
Universal then came out and won the Politician Stakes to confirm he was better than his Guineas run and to also prove he enjoyed a step up in trip to 1800m. He finished 0,80 lengths in front of third-placed Zapatillas, who had finished a 2,80 length fourth to Double Superlative in the Cape Guineas.
So on that bit of collateral form Universal is two lengths inferior to Double Superlative, which equates to four points. However, he is officially rated 12 points lower than him, which gives his trainer Adam Marcus an opportunity to target him exclusively at the July.
A lot of trainers would be reluctant to take such a course because putting all of your eggs in one basket is seldom advisable and the July is a a notoriously rough race with plenty of bad luck stories.
Furthermore, there is only one opportunity for a horse to enter a race like the Grade 1 Jonsson Workwear Cape Derby, but potentially multiple opportunities to enter the July.
Therefore, Universal is likely to be among the entries next Monday for the Jonsson Workwear Cape Derby, which is to be run on February 26, and the Brett Crawford 111-rated Zapatillas is also likely to be so.
However, supposing Marcus did opt to target the July exclusively, his best option would be to run Universal in the Grade 2 WSB 1900 because there is traditionally a loophole in that race which states the winner cannot be raised more than six points and placed horses cannot be raised at all.
Justin Snaith made use of that loophole when winning the July with four-year-old Belgarion two years ago. Ironically Belgarion was also rated 113 going into the WSB 1900, his previous race having been five months earlier when winning the Glorious Goodwood Peninsula Handicap. He won the WSB 1900 by three lengths and the handicappers duly gave him six points which meant he went into the July carrying 53kg and being only half-a-kilogram under sufferance (Topweight was the 134 rated Vardy).
There is a clause in the July conditions which says the handicappers can use their discretion when publishing the weights and although they could have weighted Belgarion off his achieved 122 rating they opted not to break precedent. There is a 99% chance they will do the same this year.
As things stand Universal will need to be rated 120 or less to get into the race carrying 53kg so even a win in the WSB 1900 will ensure he is not above that mark. Of course the headache is to find another preparation race, because, unlike Belgarion, most horses would need a couple of preparation races. However, supposing he does not win the WSB 1900, the Grade 3 Cup Trial then becomes an option as a handicap where a horse would have to win in commanding fashion to be raised more than seven points.
Another Cape three-year-old who can take advantage of his current merit rating is Cosmic Highway, who finished a 2,50 length third in the Cape Guineas but is only rated 108. He is by Gimmethegreenlight out of a speedy Silvano mare so has a stamina doubt but on the other hand is a member of three-time July-winning trainer Dean Kannemeyer’s yard.
Cosmic Highway (Pic – Chase Liebenberg)
The Johannesburg three-year-olds males are also in a good position. Last year the Highveld sophomore males’ merit ratings were dragged up by Malmoos, who arrived back on the Highveld rated 114 after his Cape campaign, but this year there were no prominent male Cape campaigners from the Highveld and the highest rated runner in Tuesday night’s WSB Gauteng Guineas is 110-rated Safe Passage, although it is a different story in the Wilgerbosdrift Gauteng Fillies Guineas where 117-rated WSB Cape Fillies Guineas runner up Desert Miracle appears.
Of the older horses the likes of Flying Carpet, Second Base and Hoedspruit will be looking to protect perfect 116 ratings, which will currently put them in the handicap with the minimum weight for a male runner of 53kg, Majestic Mozart is only one point higher than them, Al Muthana is on 115, Marina and She’s A Keeper are 118 and 116 respectively, Sparkling Water is an eyecatching 112, which is just two points below the threshold 114 which would currently put an older female on 52kg, and Warrior is interesting on 108.
