Changingoftheguard seen winning the Matchem in 2012
A rather out of sorts former Matchem Stakes winner takes on a host of fit distance specialists in the topliner on Monday’s Youth Day holiday programme at Kenilworth. With another cold front predicted for the Cape, calculations and form could be thrown off kilter and yet another lifechanging Pick 6 dividend could be in the offing.
Justin Snaith’s Go Deputy gelding is the obvious class horse in the ten strong field. The 5yo is very lightly campaigned and this is an obvious indicator of a horse with problems.
It is worthwhile noting that his last win was in fact in the 2012 Gr3 Matchem Stakes, where he beat Saturday’s Gr1 Gold Challenge winner King Of Pain with a sustained finish.
He has only had six runs since, with his last outing an unplaced effort behind stablemate Jet Burst over a mile at Fairview twelve weeks ago. His fitness will thus have to be taken on trust.
We can probably start the ball rolling by discounting topweight River Crossing.
The son of Caesour is a staying sort, who will need further to produce his genuine ability. That said, there is plenty of pace in the race, which should make for an interesting tactical spectacle.
Very Capable
Grant Van Niekerk rides his stablemate Ashton Park, a consistent six time winner and probably the best son of his sire to race.
He ran a nice fourth when 2,40 lengths adrift of Johnny Rockets last time, and was passed late by Half Moon Hotel who beat him a short head and meets him at level weights again.
Ashton Park is a better horse at 1400m, and should turn the tables on the Marshall second stringer.
His stablemate Hammie’s Dynasty finished 8,20 lengths behind Blarney Bay last time and while 6kgs better off with the winner there, appears to be struggling and may prefer the going on top.
Revelation
Mike Robinson’s Blarney Bay will go very close again
Mike Robinson’s Blarney Bay has proven a revelation since changing stables.
He will be ridden by the youthful rising star apprentice, Xavier Carstens, who rode him so well last time.
The son of Nysaean registered a fifth victory when winning on the summer course 1400m beating South Kensington by 4,75 lengths in receipt of 6,5kgs.
He now meets South Kensington on 4kgs worse terms, but is fit and well and is a versatile galloper who can handle the going if it rains.
Mike Stewart’s Robertson looks the perfect horse to give him a soft lead.
Consistent
Vaughan Marshall sends out the very consistent Albert Hall gelding South Kensington, who, as stated, is better off with Blarney Bay.
He may lack the class of the top few, but is another who can run handily and as a course and distance specialist who runs when the going is soft, he comes into the picture and certainly has the edge on a few of them.
Joey Ramsden has engaged SA Champion jockey elect S’manga Khumalo to ride the 3yo Azincourt, who jumps from pole position.
He has won his two races up the straight, and has not shaped in his last two starts, despite not being too far off the action
Stewart Duo
Mike Stewart saddles the bottom weight coupling of the frontrunning Robertson and the 7yo Count My Luck, who has battled to live up to his name of late.
Robertson was reported not striding out last time and is in under sufferance on paper. But if we discount the top rated runners for practical reasons of distance suitability and potential lack of fitness, then he has a serious chance of staying on for a place at the back end of quartets with his forward style of racing.
He will also enjoy the rain.
Count My Luck has his 52nd run and is battling. He has no chance on his recent profile.
Plot And Plan
As suggested, there is plenty of pace in the field.
Robertson knows only one way, while Blarney Bay won’t be far behind him and may benefit from being allowed to relax in his slipstream.
South Kensington is another pacy fellow who could make it hot up front. If they cut each other’s throats (and we have seen the Cape jockeys doing some strange things in recent months) then the classy Changingoftheguard could run them all down late and win his first race in twenty months.
King Mike At Royal Ascot
Shea Shea – Proudly SA! And running at Ascot on Tuesday
This week at Royal Ascot, champion trainer Mike De Kock will attempt to scale another mountain as he looks to be the first South African to train a winner at the Royal meeting.
The festival is held from 17 to 21 June 2014 and De Kock has two Ascot runners in sprinter Shea Shea, who runs in the Kings Stand Stakes and Soft Falling Rain who is set to line up in the Queen Anne Stakes
It’s all about fast horses and fancy hats at Royal Ascot, the world’s most famous race meeting, and the most glamorous event on London’s sporting calendar.
Royal Ascot is Britain’s most popular race meeting. Steeped in tradition, heritage and pageantry, it dates back 300 years and is attended by the Royal Family, including Her Majesty the Queen.
Founded by Queen Anne in 1711, Royal Ascot features a daily horse-drawn procession from Windsor Castle to Ascot Racecourse led by the royal carriage.
