The NHA Handicapping Panel is cautioning all stakeholders, especially the Betting Public, to be extremely careful when using the Carded Merit Ratings in their assessments.
Due to the vast number of ‘conditions’ type races, together with a host of conditions attached to the Graded races (mainly on the Highveld), many of the ratings that are published do not reflect the Handicapper’s final assessment of those horses affected by these conditions.
This issue is especially affecting the current 3yo crop as they are unexposed and open to improvement.
Image for illustration only (Pic – Chase Liebenberg)
As per the previous press release, the best weighted column on form guides may not always be an accurate guide and extreme caution must be exercised. On that basis, the Handicappers shall not be responsible or participate in the selecting of final fields and eliminations in oversubscribed Pattern (Graded and Listed) races on the Highveld.
To rate a race, a line or key horse/s are identified by the Handicappers. Every runner in a race produces a performance figure or RMR (Race Merit Rating) relative to the line horse that is selected.
The weights carried, WFA scale, margins between the runners and to the line horse are used to calculate the RMR number which the Handicappers use as a tool in making assessments.
Factors such as the horse’s overall profile, pace, weather and underfoot conditions as well as interference in running etc., are considered before a final rating by the Panel is applied and becomes official. In conditions races, where runners cannot be adjusted upwards, the latter exercise is consequently not done.
Accordingly, the Handicappers reserve the right in using a line horse’s previous RMR or performance figure and not always the Carded Merit Rating as a guide to rate a race as in many cases, as explained above, the Carded Merit Rating may be constrained by the arbitrary ratings restriction mentioned above.
Image for illustration only (Pic – Chase Liebenberg)
The NHA receive numerous calls from astute stakeholders as to what rating the team would apply if there were no restrictions. This practice could be deemed to be “insider trading” and the Handicappers will cease to divulge any information pertaining to requests of this nature and similar.
Note: The Tab4Racing Victory Moon Stakes (Grade 3) and Gardenia Stakes (Listed) are subject to the abovementioned ratings restrictions.
Handicapping Ratings Update
- Tab4Racing Victory Moon Stakes (Grade 3)
LITIGATION has had his merit rating raised from 101 to 107 following his success in the Grade 3 Tab4Racing Victory Moon Stakes over 1800m on the Turffontein standside course on Sunday 6 November. The Handicappers were of the view that 3rd placed SPARKLING WATER made for the most suitable line horse, which leaves her unchanged on a mark of 122. PLATINUM SKY also runs to his rating of 98, effectively making him a line horse as well.
In assessing the race this way, LITIGATION actually achieves a mark of 108, but the specific race conditions do not permit an increase of more than six pounds for the winner, which means that LITIGATION had to be capped at 107. The race conditions also do not permit any increase in the rating of a horse other than the winner and so runner-up EAST COAST remains on a mark of 106, although in fact running to a considerably higher mark, this completely under-values what is clearly a very progressive and useful three-year-old and his current Carded Rating of 106 is not truly representative of his actual ability.
There were ratings drops for no fewer than eight horses. DIVINE ODYSSEY is down from 113 to 111, SECOND BASE drops from 117 to 115, MAJESTIC MOZART is down to 112 from 115, ARAGOSTA is down from 118 to 116, PERFECT WITNESS goes from 109 to 106 and PAMUSHANA’S PRIDE was cut from 113 to 103 after failing to confirm his 2021 Derby performance in his subsequent five runs. ZILLZAAL is down to 114 from 116, and lastly, ZEUS was dropped from 108 to 105.
- Gardenia Stakes (Listed)
BELLA CHICA has had her rating raised from 100 to 105 following her win in the Listed Gardenia Stakes for fillies and mares over the straight 1000m at Turffontein on Sunday. Here it was 4th placed ALULA’S STAR who was used as the line horse, which leaves her unchanged on a mark of 97.
Here again the specific race conditions do not permit any ratings increase for any horse beyond the winner, and so 3rd placed FLOWERBOMB remains on 93 despite actually running to a mark of 102.
Six horses did, however, receive a rating’s drop. BIG BURN was cut from 120 to 118, KISSING POINT is down from 109 to 105, MAY QUEEN drops to 89 from 91, REMEMBER WHEN drops from 98 to 93, ROZARA drops from 87 to 86, and lastly SHOW TIME drops from 89 to 86.
- Cape Mile (Grade 3)
JET DARK remains unchanged on a mark of 130 after he made a winning seasonal debut in the Grade 3 Cape Mile over 1600m on the winter course at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Saturday 5 November. It was the ultra-consistent 2nd placed SILVER OPERATOR who was considered to make for the best line horse here, leaving him unchanged on a rating of 119. In assessing the race this way, JET DARK only runs to a mark of 125, hence his unchanged rating.
Aside from the winner, the only other increase was for 5th placed SILVANO’S TIMER, who despite running to a performance figure or RMR of 114, only goes up from 104 to 109 to at least make him the equal of the 109 rated ROCKIN’ RINGO who he beat here at level weights.
The only ratings drop was for SENSO UNICO, who is down from 110 to 108.
- Laisserfaire Stakes (Handicap) (Listed)
KWINTA’S LIGHT has been raised from 102 to 105 after winning the Listed Laisserfaire Stakes (handicap) for fillies and mares over 1100m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Saturday. It was 3rd finisher SANTA MARIA who was considered to make for the best line horse here, which leaves her unaltered on a mark of 106.
Aside from the winner, the only other ratings increase was for 2nd placed STIPTELIK, who carried one pound or half-a-kilo overweight and beat the line horse by 0.5 lengths goes up from 90 to 92.
The solitary drop was for DANCETILDAYLIGHT, who is down from 100 to 98.
- Woolavington Stakes (Listed)
BARATHEON has seen his merit rating rise from 90 to 96 after he captured the Listed Woolavington Stakes over 2400m at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth on Saturday. The Handicappers were unanimous in their view that runner-up SALVATOR MUNDI made for the best line horse here, which leaves him unchanged on a rating of 99. In assessing the race this way, 3rd placed REX UNION also runs to his mark of 105, effectively making him a line horse as well.
Two horses were given a rating’s drop. BELGARION is down from 124 to 121, while CHEWBACA drops from 100 to 95.
- Model Man Mile (Listed)
SEE IT AGAIN has had his rating raised from 88 to 104 following his emphatic win in the Listed Model Man Mile for three-year-olds over 1600m on the turf track at Hollywoodbets Greyville on Sunday. Here it was 2nd placed CANADIAN SUMMER who was deemed to make for the best line horse, leaving her unchanged on a mark of 104 – bearing in mind that she carried 1,5 kgs more than the winner.
The winner aside, the only other rating’s increase was for 4th placed BOUNDLESS BASH, who is up from 91 to 94. This gelding actually ran to a mark of 96, but the Handicappers were reluctant to take this literally as he was the last of the main group of horses to finish and in turn the remaining three contestants finished many lengths behind him. This type of situation can flatter a horse, so some caution was considered to be in order.
The only decrease was for FUTURE OF ENERGY, who drops from 80 to 77.
- Media release by National Horseracing Authority on Tuesday 8 November 2022
