Rocco’s Luck may be in for a change of luck
Trainer Dominic Zaki’s Emerald Cup day didn’t quite develop into the jamboree that we all anticipated but he returns with seven runners to the bread and butter fare at the Vaal on Tuesday. The nine-race programme has all the familiar looks of a Pick 6 carryover in disguise.
Punters will have to tread carefully – and be thankful for fractional betting.
Zaki saddled the popular choice in the Gr2 Emerald Cup in the reformed 7yo Jet Jamboree, who carried many hopes from his 1 draw.
The beautiful Jet Master gelding never got into a strong position sadly and had to be content with fifth place.
The yard did grab some consolation earlier in the day though when the speedy Precursor stamped his authority with a fluent win in the Sophomore 1000.
Tough
Four typically tough middle of the road handicaps make up the last four races on the Vaal Tuesday card and thus the bulk of the Pick 6 and Jackpot bets will centre around the puzzle that they offer.
The highest rated of the handicaps is the jackpot final leg, an MR 86 Handicap run over the 1400m.
Zaki’s 6yo Australian-bred gelding Rocco’s Luck tops the weights and has been knocking hard for his 7th career win.
While he is plagued by reports of respiratory noises which deters any genuine confidence, his recent blinkered efforts just behind some quality horses suggest that he could go close here.
Promising apprentice Ryan Munger brings 1,5kgs relief off Rocco’s Luck’s 62kg impost and a solid pace will suit a horse who battles with early pace.
Ran Behind
Piere Strydom – trust his judgement
Piere Strydom sticks with Stephen Moffat’s Lion Tamer 4yo Leeuloop Jet , who actually finished 4,75 lengths behind Rocco’s Luck over a mile at their last clash.
With a 1,5kg negative turnaround in the weights, Leeuloop Jet should again finish behind Rocco’s Luck.
Brian Wiid’s consistent 5yo National Key finished 1,25 lengths behind One Man’s Dream last time when giving the Goosen runner 3kgs. One Man’s Dream went on to slam the promising Dollar Dazzler on Tuesday (fair enough Alec Laird’s galloper was returning from a break) and that underlines the strength of the form.
National Key looks ideally distance suited.
River Of Dreams
Joey Soma’s Windrush gelding Rushmore River has been declared in steels and never showed on his return from an eight month rest when finishing over 13 lengths behind the promising Sovereign Mint in a Pinnacle Stakes a fortnight back.
Rushmore River was an unexposed but forward looking 3yo prospect last season and is bound to strip fitter.
St John Gra’s Form Up has not been far off recently but is worse off with carded topweight Rocco’s Luck after showing pace and running 2,75 lengths behind him last time over 200m further.
He appears most comfortable around this trip and Weiho Marwing, who rode him to victory at his penultimate start, takes the ride again.
Up in Class
The American-bred Indian Giant steps up in class and has not been far off recently. A hard-knocking course and distance winner, he is capable of adding to his five win haul and springing a surprise – his last three wins coming at 33 to 1, 16 to 1 and 20 to 1. So be warned!
Clint Binda has sent out a few winners lately from his limited range of opportunity and the 7yo Kahal gelding Kapellmeister is a course and distance winner capable of running on at them late.
He actually finished ahead of Leeuloop Jet last time but is worse off with and looks held by Rocco’s Luck.
Unpredictable
As is typical of races of this nature, the form is often shuffled and luck in running and flashes of brilliance in the saddle can jumble matters.
There is plenty of pace in the race and we are looking at the prospects of Rocco’s Luck enjoying a change of luck at the expense of Leeuloop Jet and National Key.
There should be value opportunities all round, but add a few for the Pick 6 and Jackpot perms. It looks a day of major payout opportunities!
