A full field of fifteen fillies and mares has been declared for The Scarlet Lady, run over a stiff mile on the inner track at Scottsville.
This is one of those weird races, both in terms of weights and post-race ratings adjustments.
Our captains at the NHA, who should know better, have agreed that the winner’s post-race merit rating cannot be increased by more than 6 points, and that the placed horses cannot get any increase at all (nor presumably can the unplaced runners).
It defies all belief of ethic and fairness for future handicap race contestants.
The conditions of the race are MR-related, but it is not quite a handicap. It may pay form-students to compare current MR-ratings with the weights, and see what gives.
We look at the contestants in order of our Timeform and Racing Post compatible AR ratings – the task is to determine whether they can reproduce their rating in this race.
Let’s see…
Gallica Rose (yellow cap) makes her seasonal debut
Gallica Rose makes her seasonal KZN-debut. The 5yo mare raced four times during the Cape season, for one fourth place, and seems best suited to distances of 2000m and more. She was unplaced in this race last year, but beaten less than 3 lengths by the winner. Her ratings are mostly consistent, so if fit and well she should again be thereabouts.
Ma Choix last raced in the Cape in January, when finishing 8th, beaten six lengths in the Gr1 Paddock Stakes won by Smart Call. Gallica Rose was three lengths behind her on that occasion, in 12th place. That effort earned Ma Choix a career-best rating, though, and a repeat would give her a great chance here. Against her is that she’s drawn very wide.
The 3yo Trini’s Collateral jumps in at the deep end. She tries this distance for the first time, but has won over a mile, earning a career-best rating. She should give a good account of herself if she gets the trip in a true run race.
Deputy Ryder – must have a great chance here
Deputy Ryder will be out to continue the headlining for her sire Go Deputy. She tried her luck during the Cape season in the Paddock Stakes and Majorca Stakes.
Her best effort was in the latter race, over a mile, beaten just under five lengths. A repeat of that run gives her a great chance here.
S’manga Khumalo – rides Zante
Her stable companion Zante has been tried over a lot more ground than today’s stiff mile.
The daughter of Ideal World won on her return to KZN earlier this month, over a mile at this course. In terms of AR ratings she’ll have to do quite a bit better than that, which is entirely possible given her efforts during the winter season last year, as a 3yo. Khumalo gets the ride.
Another daughter of Go Deputy, Kileigh, raced over this course and distance earlier in April, making the pace and finishing third, beaten five lengths by Fantasy Lady. That was a good effort, as she was giving 11kg to the winner. Fantasy Lady is again in the line-up, but this time the weight difference is 4.5kg. The 3yo Fantasy Lady is lightly raced and might well be better than rated, but it seems probable that Kileigh will turn the tables. Both look to have a tough task.
Work Ethic – shown marked improvement this term
Kileigh’s stable companion Work Ethic is by Ideal World out of a Fort Wood mare, and has shown marked improvement in ratings as a 3yo this season.
Her last run was a good win over 2000m on poly at Greyville, earning her a career-best AR rating (and a 7-point merit rating increase). With some further improvement she must have an excellent chance here.
The polished Ian Sturgeon rides Fortitude
Gauteng visitor Fortitude is distance suited, but her last two efforts (both in feature races) were well below her best form.
Queen’s Advance finished five lengths behind Zante last time out, and meets the winner on similar weight terms here. In addition she has a wide draw and a habit to be slow away.
Crackpot has two wins from her last four starts. The daughter of Judpot has shown improved ratings since coming from PE, but just how good she is or isn’t – who knows. With some improvement on the rating from her last winning effort in March she’d certainly have a chance here.
The 3yo Alado filly Adorada has shown improved AR ratings at her most recent starts, winning twice. Her last run was her best, despite being hampered and only finishing fourth. Some improvement on that and she’ll be in the firing line here. Against her is a wide draw, and a tardy starting habit.
Lyle Hewitson – rides Velvet Wind
Lightly raced Velvet Wind ran a close second to Fantasy Lady last time out. She’s a kilo and a half better off for a beating of half a lerngth. Like her conqueror, Velvet Wind will have to improve quite a bit more to have a chance.
Gauteng visitor Sisters Of Mercy won her most recent start over a mile at the Vaal, running close to her best AR rating. She looks to have a stiff task at the weights in this company, though.
The same goes for Mark My Card, who was beaten five lengths by Zante last time out, and now is 3kg better off. Zante won there with a rating some way below what she’s capable of.
In summary, a highly competitive race, with several contenders still relatively unexposed in terms of their real worth.
In the latter group is Work Ethic, our first choice. Not a confident one, with all of stable companions Deputy Ryder and Zante, and likely improvers My Choix and Trini’s Collateral on the shortlist.
