July: Draw History Suggests Capoeira & Tierra Del Fuego

Surely, it's of little significance, really?

The table of draw statistics for the last 70 renewals of the Vodacom Durban July were kindly researched and provided by Jay August, with comments by David Thiselton.

The favourite Rainbow Bridge jumps from draw 2, which has produced three winners in the last 70 years.

However, August pointed out this draw has produced the joint lowest number of top four runners in that period.

Do It Again, seeking a record breaking third July, jumps from draw 18, which has also produced three winners.

Second favourite Belgarion’s draw of 17 is due a win as it has only produced one winner in the last 70 years.

The fancied Vardy is also drawn in a position, 9, which has only produced one winner in that period.

Supplementary entry Capoeira – jumps at 8 (Pic – Candiese Lenferna)

The most successful draws in this 70 year period are draws 8 and 11 with seven winners each. Capoeira and Tierra Del Fuego are drawn in those respective positions this year.

Since the track was narrowed, which led to a maximum of 16 runners in 2014 and 18 runners from then onward, the winning draws have been 11, 6, 18, 8, 15 and 8.

R1 500 000 2200m 15h10
1st R937500, 2nd R300000, 3rd R150000, 4th R75000, 5th R37500
VODACOM DURBAN JULY (Grade 1)
Open to all Horses
WFA: 3yrs-2kgs
No Apprentice Allowance
1 1 Golden Ducat 53 115 A …………… Eric Sands
2 2 Rainbow Bridge 60 134 A W Kennedy Eric Sands
3 3 Padre Pio 53 115 A A Mgudlwa Dennis Bosch
4 4 Miyabi Gold 52 115 A K de Melo Justin Snaith
5 5 Soqrat (AUS) 59 132 A C Murray Mike de Kock
6 6 Twist Of Fate 56.5 127 BA A Domeyer Adam Marcus
7 7 Shango 53 116 TBA L Hewitson Sean Tarry
8 8 Capoeira 53 115 BA T Godden Andre Nel
9 9 Vardy 60 134 A C Zackey Adam Marcus
10 10 Divine Odyssey 53 117 A S Randolph J A Janse van Vuuren
11 11 Tierra Del Fuego 55 124 A G Lerena Sean Tarry
12 12 It’s My Turn 53 118 A S Veale Dean Kannemeyer
13 13 Got The Greenlight 53 118 T A M Yeni Joe Soma
14 14 Bunker Hunt 55 124 A G van Niekerk Justin Snaith
15 15 Silvano’s Pride 52 118 A S Moodley Justin Snaith
16 16 Camphoratus 52 110 A G Wright R A Hill/S R Hill
17 17 Belgarion 53 119 A R Fourie Justin Snaith
18 18 Do It Again 59.5 133 A A Marcus Justin Snaith
19 0 Tristful 53 109 A Reserve 1 Tony Rivalland
20 0 Hero’s Honour 53 115 A Reserve 2 Gary Alexander
Same Trainer – Not Coupled on Tote
(1,2) (4,14,15,17,18) (6,9) (7,11)

The connections of the Justin Snaith-trained pair Do It Again and Belgarion would likely have groaned when seeing them draw barrier positions 18 and 17 respectively, but these two draws in fact finished one-two in 2016 courtesy of The Conglomerate and Marinaresco.

However, all in all, the statistics tend to show that the barrier draw is of little significance in the Vodacom Durban July.

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