Variety Club faces the acid test in unrestricted company
The three-year-old form faces its first acid test in top flight unrestricted company when two members of the 2008 foal crop square up to nine more seasoned campaigners in the L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate over 1600m on the Kenilworth new course on Saturday, writes MATTHEW LIPS.
Variety Club will primarily carry the hopes of the younger set in this hugely prestigious WFA contest, and the fact that Anton Marcus has stuck with the ride on Joey Ramsden’s three-year-old is surely significant as the champion jockey had a couple of viable alternatives to choose from. Undefeated from three starts this season, Variety Club is going from strength to strength and is still improving at a fair old rate, at least if the form of his runaway 3.25 lengths success in the recent Gr1 Cape Premier Yearling Sale Guineas over this course-and-distance is taken at face value.
Past form suggest that the Guineas would more than likely be a closely-run affair, but Variety Club laid that theory to rest when bolting up after tracking his pacesetting stable companion The Balladeer through most of the race. He put many lengths between himself and several rivals who had finished much closer to the son of Var in previous encounters, and while the Guineas was run to suit him after one of the most intelligent uses of a pacemaker that we have seen for ages it was hard not to be impressed with the way in which Variety Club won. The fact that the four horses with the best exposed credentials filled the first four places suggests that the Guineas form is solid, and while Joey Ramsden’s colt will be tested here he can pass the exam with flying colours even from the 10 draw.
Gimmethegreenlight is the other sophomore in this line-up and to be fair it may be unwise to take his 5.75 lengths drubbing in the Guineas entirely literally. He was running on from off the pace in a race not really run to suit those coming from that sort of position and he did run Variety Club to about a neck on similar weight terms in the Gr2 Selangor Cup over 1600m on the old course in November. It’s hard to believe that the Australian-bred son of More Than Ready will reverse Guineas form with Variety Club, but he could at least get closer and earn a smaller slice of the million Rand pot on offer.
Ebony Flyer - the most likely threat
However, the most likely threat to Variety Club promises to be Gimmethegreenlight’s stable companion Ebony Flyer, who looks to go a couple of places better after she finished third as a three-year-old in this race last season. The massive daughter of Jet Master has started three times since she returned from a 40 week injury-enforced absence and given her size she has probably needed every one of those runs to get down to her optimum fighting weight. The Queen’s Plate has been her primary mission of the summer since she returned to action in October, and Justin Snaith’s filly put up a performance that was full of merit to suffer only her second lifetime defeat when beaten 2.25 lengths by ace sprinter What A Winter in the recent Gr2 Diadem Stakes over 1200m. Last season’s Cape Fillies Guineas winner looks to be absolutely spot on for her second assault on the Queen’s Plate, and she is a remorseless galloper who can race handy and try and run her opponents into the ground.
There is little to choose on overall form between Bravura and Tales Of Bravery, who were separated by half-length when respectively finishing first and second on the same weight terms as these in the Gr2 Green Point Stakes over the old course 1600m in November. Tales Of Bravery followed that up with the gallant half-length defeat of Emerald Cove in a minor Feature over this course-and-distance, and it is well worth remembering that Vaughan Marshall’s gelding finished three-quarters of a length ahead of Ebony Flyer when second in this race twelve months ago. Bravura showed a timely return to form when he won the Green Point and the former Gr1 Cape Derby winner can hardly be without hope, but he is surely one that Anton Marcus could have opted to partner and the fact that the rider chose otherwise is a feather in the cap of Variety Club. Still, jockeys have been known to err in these matters and a bold effort from Bravura would not be any surprise. Similarly, Tales Of Bravery must be an each way possibility.
Champion trainer Mike de Kock is represented by Link Man and Gibraltar Blue, both of whom arguably (and Gibraltar Blue in particular) may be at their absolute best over a shade less than 1600m. Link Man was rather disappointing when he failed even to beat last season’s Gr1 2450m SA Derby winner Seal when finishing third behind The Apache in a pinnacle plate over 1600m at Turffontein recently. He was able to win the Gr2 Gauteng Guineas over 1600m last season, but that was not an exceptionally strong race, and in any case Link Man has looked a little scratchy cantering to post in his last couple of outings, Gibraltar Blue is a consistent frontrunner, but she looks vulnerable over a mile in top company and has in any case been beaten every time she has raced at Gr1 level, over whatever distance. There’s not much between the De Kock duo on their form in the Gr2 Merchants (handicap) won by Antious over 1160m in November, but even their wizard conditioner will need to pull something out of the bag to get either of them to win this.
Lion In Winter joins stable companions Bravura and Variety Club in the starting blocks, but looks by some way the least likely winner of the Ramsden trio. His form is more than useful, but he was beaten 2.75 lengths into third place in the Green Point Stakes and will be hard pressed to reverse the form with either Bravura or Tales Of Bravery.
Chesalon put up easily the best effort of his career (at least on paper) when he ran on well to beat Cask by almost one length in the Gr2 Premier Trophy over 1800m here four weeks ago, where Lion In Winter ran on too late and was beaten two lengths into fourth place. That represented considerable improvement on Chesalon’s unplaced effort from an unfavourable draw in the Green Point, and indeed his Premier Trophy success earned him a ten pound hike in his merit rating. The drop back to 1600m should not be a problem for Mike Bass’ gelding, who was beaten little more than half-a-length behind Tales Of Bravery over 1500m in October, albeit on 1.5 kgs worse terms than these. It is debatable in the extreme whether Chesalon has improved enough to have a winning chance here, but it could be argued that he still remains a bit of an unknown quantity.
Chesalon’s stable companion Kiss Again was drawn widest of 11 when he stayed on and finished a tick under one length fourth behind Tales Of Bravery over 1600m three weeks ago, and he meets that rival on the same terms. The Al Mufti gelding may not have been ideally suited to racing handier than normal when he faded to finish 4.30 lengths sixth behind Bravura in the Green Point and is better than that. On overall form he is pretty close to several of these in ability and could fill a minor place, but he has yet to win a Graded race and he probably won’t be quite good enough to set that record straight on Saturday.
Fabiani has won twice from as many starts since he returned from a 48 week absence, but he takes a massive rise in class after narrowly getting the better of Celtic Fire in a recent Listed WFA event over 1600m at Arlington. His most recent Cape Town success came in a four runner progress plate, and while he did manage to win the Gr2 Green Point Stakes two seasons ago he looks to be out of his depth here.
An intriguing contest surely awaits. Gibraltar Blue may very well be the one to ensure a proper pace from the jump, for she seemingly knows no other way of doing things. One can presumably expect Variety Club and Ebony Flyer to race handily throughout, despite their less-than-ideal draws, and they may very well dispute the outcome. They are selected in that order, with Bravura, Tales Of Bravery, and Gimmethegreenlight making the most appeal of the others.
