French Connection. Silvano’s Jet will be ridden by Maxime Guyon
The boom colt Capetown Noir looks a proverbial good thing to register a prestigious classic double when he contests Saturday’s R600 000 Gr1 Investec Cape Derby at Kenilworth. The Dean Kannemeyer-trained son of Western Winter looks something very special in the making, and there is really just one question that needs answering.
Will Capetown Noir stay the 2000m? Yes, or no? For the uninformed that may sound like a complex question that requires hours of analysis and debate. Frankly only the race itself will tell, but judging by his current price of around 3-10 it appears that at least the bookmakers have decided which way that debate is going.
The Known
Let’s consider the known factors. Capetown Noir is a magnificent scopy specimen who does not look like a speed machine , even though the family have admittedly tended towards that discipline. Capetown Noir has won 4 of his 6 starts, and the only times he was beaten, there appeared ready reasons for his downfall. He hung when returning from a short break at Durbanville over 1400m in October, when going down under a storming half- length to the course specialist Marchant Capetown Noir was then beaten a whisker in the Selangor after being toppled by a terrifically innovative ride by Bernard Fayd’herbe on the grey King Of Pain, who lines up in the Met on Saturday.
Champion. Kannemeyer’s Guineas winner Capetown Noir is our banker bet and looks a good thing
Poetry
Capetown Noir’s victory in the Gr1 Cape Premier Yearling Sales Guineas was pure poetry in motion. Hitting the front 400m from home against the best of his age group, he simply extended his lead to win as he liked by 3,25 lengths. He had Sanshaawes and Paterfamilias, both of whom he meets again on Saturday over the extra 400m, well and truly beaten. Both his veteran jockey and world-class trainer believe that Capetown Noir will stay the 2000m.
In any event, the fluid manner of Capetown Noir’s Guineas victory suggests that he could actually burgle this race on pure class and ability alone – that is assuming at worst that he is only a miler. History will show that Jackson beat Variety Club in last year’s Derby. And the brilliant miler could well have been a Derby winner, had Jackson not turned up. The thought is that there is no Jackson in this year’s Derby. If that makes any sense?
Quality
While this is a Gr1 contest and a quality field, the rest should not get near Capetown Noir in our estimation. It is quite ironic that the closest horse on the handicap to Capetown Noir is Sanshaawes, who is a humble winner of a weak winter maiden race at the track. The pure statistics do Piet Steyn’s talented Ashaawes gelding little justice and if not in need of this outing after missing the Politician Stakes due to a swollen hind leg, he could chase the favourite home in the hands of Piere Strydom at his first try beyond 1800m. Seven of the balance of the eleven runners met in the Politician Stakes run on L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate day and we could literally throw a blanket over them with that race telling us precious little.
Genius
The genius of Anton Marcus muddles the Politician Stakes, as he conjured up a rather unlikely win for the Lafferty visitor Love Struck from the plumb draw. They all finished on top of each other there,and under six lengths covered Ze Kaiser, who flew late to get within a neck of Love Struck, right down to Parker. Ze Kaiser is a beautiful grey half -brother to the well performed Silver Mist, and he shot to Derby prominence with that dazzling weaving late run in the Politician Stakes. Karl Neisius rode him there and had Marcus ice cold in another stride. In the usual game of jockey musical chairs, Marcus now rides Ze Kaiser with Neisius obviously sticking with Capetown Noir. Bernard Fayd’herbe rides the luckless Trippi colt Abercrombie, whose career has not taken off as we imagined it would. He ran on in the Poltician Stakes, but still had six horses ahead of him , and he should battle here again.
Traveller
Gavin Van Zyl’s raider Gray’s Champ is one of those who missed the Politician Stakes in favour of a prep in the Listed Sea Cottage Stakes. The son of Greys Inn ran a cracking fourth there, finishing just 1,25 lengths behind De Kock’s upwardly mobile Alexandra Palace, who not surprisingly avoids a clash with the Cape champion. Gray’s Champ has shown signs of being way above average, but the Gauteng form will be tested again. The remaining two of the Mike Bass quartet in Paterfamilias and Neartic Dancer did not run in the Politician Stakes. Paterfamilias in another Trippi colt, and this Klawervlei bred has won twice from 7 starts. He finished a seven length eighth behind Capetown Noir in the Guineas, and will have to lift his performance dramatically to have a say in the finish. The slow maturing Neartic Dancer in typical Go Deputy fashion, has taken a while to come to hand, and has won his last two starts on the trot. He remains unexposed at this level and has no chance on the ratings with his more proven contemproraries.
Visitor
Joey Ramsden has engaged visiting rider Maxime Guyon to ride the smart Silvano colt, Silvano’s Jet, who moved forward menacingly in the Politician Stakes, where he got bogged down late and ran a cracking third. Silvano’s Jet may have needed that run and is the sort that looks likely to continue improving. Glen Puller’s Awesome Power is a winner of 2 of his 6 starts, and ran a cracker from a shocking draw in the Poltician Stakes. He is a very immature gelding who can only improve as he matures. This may have come a bit soon for him, but he is capable of running a place. Brett Crawford’s Patriotic Rebel has won twice and ran on well for fourth in the Politician Stakes. The Justin Snaith pairing of the bargain buy Parker and the Dynasty colt, Dynamic are both talented sorts but look stretched against Capetown Noir.
Capetown Noir is a confident banker selection for every exotic on the afternoon. You won’t get rich backing him on the nose, but finding the likely placed runners is an entirely different story. Ze Kaiser, Silvano’s Jet and Sanshaawes look most likely to follow him home. If Capetown Noir doesn’t stay the trip, we will be eating humble pie.
