Bitten by the racing bug at a very early age, professional tipster and racing analyst Matthew Stevens was captivated by the game from day one.
His father had one or two shares in horses, but unfortunately for him, children weren’t allowed on the track at Clairwood Park to watch the races.
“We would station ourselves in the parking lot and stand on top of the car to watch the horses racing. I may have crept through the fence on occasion to get a closer look,” confesses Matt.
At the age of sixteen Matt started working at a stable yard during his school holidays. When back at school he spent a good few hours in the Principal’s office for sneaking his racebooks into class. After finishing school, he took a year off to learn more about the game and more about life in general. He moved up to a stud farm and racing stable in Nottingham Road, owned by the Fox family.
Racing analysist Matthew Stevens is captivated by the game
“I ended up really loving working with horses and became an assistant to trainer John Fox when he moved to Summerveld Training Centre. John was a great horseman and I learnt so much about the animal itself while working with John. That knowledge still helps me to this day to understand certain aspects of a raceday,” he tells us.
As time progressed, Matt began to realise that his real passion lay with analyzing form. He would always be the first person to pick-up a racecard when they were delivered to Summerveld. He would ride his bike early to work just to wait for the delivery of the racecards in the morning.
He would spend days studying the form and doing pretend race-calls. Trying to work out the form and possible results.
“I approached Owen Heffer at Winning Form and Sporting Post when I was 21, x he offered me a job in the racing office on a trial basis. I grabbed the opportunity with both hands and the rest is history.
“Matthew Lips was my mentor for five years. He taught me the handicapping system inside and out. He is now one of South Africa’s official handicappers, so I got to learn from one of the best!” he says enthusiastically.
Matt later started up a publication called Stable Info to try and make the game more transparent for punters. He would call every trainer in the country and ask for comments on their runners at the time of publication.
“As I’m sure you can imagine, we had a few trainers that told me where to shove my phone,” he chuckles.
“But it was just a few of the old school trainers, most trainers were for the idea in helping the punters’ succeed!”
It received great feedback and was going well until the phone bills came in. Matt soon realised that it would be financially impossible to continue. He then moved on to tipping for Winning Form before branching out on his own.
“Tipping and writing summaries a week in advance was not easy! Especially when the legendary Buddy Maroun was around who could run a horse three times in seven days,” chuckles Matt.
Tipping a week in advance often led to horses being scratched or horses having a run between the time the card was done and the next racemeeting. That was the indicator Matt needed to start up his website.
“Not tipping the scratchings was great. Doing the selections on the day of the meeting gave me so much more time to analyse the form and watch reruns etc,” says Matt.
One thing Matt learnt in racing was that you can never know everything. As soon as you think you do, it will teach you a swift lesson.
“I am still learning ever day. I remember a few years back I thought I could read a race brilliantly, as well as any pro. After helping Anton Marcus with form analysis and choosing his rides for a couple years, I can’t begin to explain how much more I learnt!
“Anton is a genius, he will pick apart a race down to every possible tactic and outcome. He helped me understand reading a race from a jockey’s perspective. He would know what horses he wanted to clear, where he wanted to be at every stage of the race. Pace, tactics and race riding can play such a big part in the outcome of a race. Even knowing what your opposition is going to do and changing your tactics accordingly,”
Anton is a genius, he will pick apart a race down to every possible tactic and outcome (Pic- Candiese Lenferna)
One rule that Matt knows to work on most occasions is ‘the truer the pace, the truer the result’.
“I do think it is a feather in my cap that people like Anton Marcus, Sean Tarry and Lyle Hewitson would value my opinion. But I am still learning,”
The name of his website, The Whisperer, felt like a clever play on words to Matt. There was always someone whispering a tip at the track. The title is a standard name given to specialists in their field, like The Horse Whisperer himself.
“I wanted a recognizable brand to build, hence the name. I do always make sure that my name, Matthew Stevens, is on all my adverts, emails and website too. I’m not hiding behind a pseudonym like some tipsters prefer too. I have no problem telling anyone who I am,” he laughs.
Matt notes that if someone is tipping for fun, it can be enjoyable to pick your own selections. But if you’re serious about showing a profit from punting, then the help of a professional analyst can be a big step in the right direction. Most punters have day jobs and families, they don’t necessarily have the time to put into their form analysis as Matt does.
“With no disrespect intended, many punters out there don’t have the handicapping knowledge a professional analyst possesses. Many of my clients like to use my perms as a base and then add a few of their own. It seems to work for many.”
Matt is not a professional gambler, nor did he grow up to enjoy gambling. He grew up and fell in love with horseracing as a sport.
“I love what I do, helping clients while doing something I love. My enjoyment comes from analyzing form, studying a race, finding a value bet at 20/1 and getting 100 messages from my clients when it wins.
“You must also understand that professional gambling and form studying are two completely different beasts. There is a huge difference between analyzing form and actually understanding what to do with it. Then having the required patience and discipline to be a successful punter.”
Matt believes in trying to get his clients to think long term. This is not a ‘get rich quick’ game. There is no guarantee on any individual bet. These are 500kg animals ridden by humans at break neck speed. So many things can go wrong. But if you’re consistent over a longer period, you can make this game profitable for yourself Matt suggested.
“Take my Value Bet, for example, a few years back we had 206-unit net profit on a level stake wagered on every Whisperer Value Bet that year. This basically means, R1000 placed on every Value Bet that year and your net profit would have been R206,000!” explains Matt.
The value bet is a long-term money-making machine and simple to explain according to Matt. Firstly, and most importantly, it is a long-term bet that focuses on consistency. The theory is rather simple every horse has a true market price. The correct price that represents their chances in the respective race. A true 7/1 shot will win one in every eight times, it’s simple mathematics.
“My job is to basically find horses that are bigger than what they should be in the market and have a competitive chance. If I can find a 14/1 that is a true 7/1 shot, they will only win one in every eight times but you’ll be getting fifteen units back for your eight spent.
“That’s the basic theory behind value. I know I can spot horses at least double the price they should be. Hence in the long run, you will make money following my value bets. Provided you keep your stakes consistent and you stay disciplined,” Matt tells the Sporting Post.
“My biggest recent exotic win bet came at Hollywoodbets Greyville a few weeks back. I tipped a double Pick-6 that paid out over R193,929-40! Our R256 Pick-6 returned R96,964 – 70 which was a 378/1 return on investment,” he brags.
This time of year, Matt suggests being more selective on your bets.
You have to pick your plums and wait for spring, which is according to Matt the best time to race in South Africa. The rain will be stopping in the Cape, the visiting stables are leaving KZN, making it less competitive. Most importantly the rain is about to start in Gauteng, turning the grass green and bringing the decent horses back to the track.
“September is always the exciting change period, bringing back some really decent bets.
“Remember, with the decent bankers, the wider we can go in the tougher legs of the exotic bets, so they always hit form at this time of year.
“I have always believed my job as an analyst is not to churn out winners every day. Rather to advise when to take a back-seat on a tough card and lower your bets. It’s just as important as backing a winner and showing a profit in the long run,” advises Matt.
Click the link to view his website- https://www.whisperer.co.za/
