When a fancied runner starts drifting in the betting, it is always a sign for the alert punter that all is not well with their fancy.
That’s not to say that it could be a false drift, but more often than not there is a vital point that has been over-looked by many.
Andrew Harrison writes that television pundit Graeme Hawkins alluded to this when summing up the third race at Hollywoodbets Greyville on Wednesday.
Queen Anne’s Lace wins well under Warren Kennedy (Pic – Candiese Lenferna)
He pointed out that on the weight-for-age scale (WFA), hot favourite Rock Flight was way out at the weights on the WFA scale with her older rivals in spite of looking to have the better form.
He also alluded to the fact that Gavin van Zyl may have fitted blinkers to his charge to get Rock Flight into the race a little earlier. The half-cups were on.
He countered that by sticking with Rock Flight in his summation as he felt that Golden Duck had not been striding freely to the gate. That said, he also pointed out that her rider had been warming her up behind the gate before the start.
Post-race, trainer Paul Lafferty confirmed those observations, but also pointed out that it was normal for his charge and nothing untoward.
As they say in the Classics, ‘Rock Flight drifted like a loose barge’ in the market, from odds-on to a last call of close to 14-10 before the off with money coming for eventual winner Golden Duck.
The tired cliché of ‘weight stops trains’ held true in this case with Rock Flight struggling a long way out as apprentice Kyle Strydom, full value for his 2.5kg claim, skated home comfortably to smash the field out of the park with Rock Flight a distant second.
No doubt, Rock Flight will have her day but it does pay to take some not-so-obvious factors into account when things look obvious.
Turffontein-based Paul Peter was in town and his first-call hatchet man Warren Kennedy had little trouble executing the opposition in the first two races on the card with both Space Race and Queen Anne’s Lace winning comfortably.
Both were maiden plates and although Space Race was slightly out at the weights her form was strong and Queen Anne’s Lace looked to be a penalty kick and the result expected.
The Peter-trained favourite Lotus came up short in the fourth when out-run by Wendy Whitehead’s mare Keep On Dancing. Again, the WFA scale came into play and the winner, according to the stats, had a 3.5kg weight advantage.
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