Dancewiththedevil - attempts to score a Gr1 Horse Chestnut double to show she's champion at weight-for-age.
Gr1 SA Classic over 1800m at Turffontein on Saturday
Gimmethegreenlight is rated right at the head of the three-year-old tree and even a wide draw may not stop him from becoming the second successive Cape Town-trained winner of the SA Classic over 1800m at Turffontein (standside) on Saturday. English Garden won the race for the Western Cape visitors last season and Gimmethegreenlight has plenty in hand over his rivals on merits ratings for the 2012 edition of the second leg of the Gauteng Triple Crown.
A strapping Australian-bred son of More Than Ready, Gimmethegreenlight easily took care of some useful older rivals in a set weights event over 1400m on this course when he made his Johannesburg debut earlier in March and looks to be on song for this assault on South Africa’s most valuable three-year-olds race. Justin Snaith’s colt enjoyed a splendid Cape summer campaign, running on well to win the Gr 1 L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate before finishing an excellent third after racing handy throughout in the Gr 1 J & B Met over 2000m. He has struck up a profitable partnership with Piere Strydom, who rides him again here, and on exposed form Gimmethegreenlight looks very much the one they all have to beat. Chances are he will again race up handy and one will have to leave it to the Maestro in the saddle to get him across from his wide barrier.
One who is almost certainly better than his current rating is lightly raced Slumdogmillionaire, who looked a high class recruit when he win his first two career starts, including a Listed event by 5.75 lengths over 1800m on the Turffontein inner course. Nothing went right for Gavin van Zyl’s handsome Strike Smartly colt when he went off as 19/10 favourite for the Gr 2 Gauteng Guineas last month. He broke through the gates before the race (which, incidentally, would have meant being scratched instantly in the UK unless the starting stalls were found to be at fault), and went some 300m before he could be pulled up. In the race itself he ran on too late and finished one length third behind 100/1 winner Golden Chateau, but all things considered it was a good effort. Slumdogmillionaire will assuredly relish going back up to 1800m, and indeed is likely to stay further still, and can make his presence felt even though presently rated fully 17 pounds inferior to Gimmethegreenlight.
Potala Palace
Potala Palace
It is easy to pick holes in the form of the Gauteng Guineas, a race were the winner was rated 93 and the runner-up 97 and which hardly looked like it was in the same league as the big Cape Town three-year-old races which preceded it. A very different result is likely here, and another who can reverse form with at least some of those who beat him in the shorter race is Potala Palace. Mike Azzie’s much-vaunted colt was drawn widest of 16 in the Gauteng Guineas and was in contention until late in the day before being beaten little more than a length into fifth place. This longer distance will suit him, and he’d love the sting to be out of the ground, but a place does seem the best he can hope for if Gimmethegreenlight runs close to his best. Potala Palace could only finish more than six lengths behind Jackson when placed fourth in the Gr 1 Investec Cape Derby, where he was very well beaten by runner-up Variety Club, who on overall form is a virtual match for Gimmethegreenlight in ability.
Golden Chateau
Golden Chateau hadn’t run badly when finishing fifth in the Gr 2 Dingaans last November, but even so he ran well above previous form when he was in touch throughout and fought on well to beat Brooks-Club by half-a-length in the Gauteng Guineas. A nine pound penalty shows how much the handicappers believe he rose above his previous exploits and he may progress further still, but he has a long way to go to be mentioned in the same breath as the likes of Gimmethegreenlight and there is good reason to believe that some of his victims from last month’s race can reverse the form with Mike de Kock’s colt this time. Brooks-Club falls into that category, for he was racing for the second time after being gelded when he ran on well to be beaten half-a-length by Golden Chateau, which represented real improvement over his penultimate effort. He gave the impression that he would enjoy going over 1800m for the first time, and although not well drawn this stable companion to Slumdogmillionaire gives the Gavin van Zyl yard a pretty solid hand in the Classic.
Mushreq
Golden Chateau’s stable companion Mushreq also found things tough in Cape Town and weakened after setting the pace when he finished a further three-quarters of a length behind Potala Palace in fifth place in the Derby. He could snatch a minor place, but is left with a good deal to find to win and the pick of the De Kock horses would probably be Silver Flyer if he can come back to his best form. The Silvano colt was laid low by a bout of colic on his return from his very good second place behind Variety Club in the Cape Guineas, where he finished 2.5 lengths in front of a much below-par Gimmethegreenlight. He was nowhere near his best on his return in the Gauteng Guineas and made no show to finish 7.75 lengths behind Golden Chateau in 11th place, but Silver Flyer was impressive when full of running to win the Dingaans over 1600m last November. A return to that sort of form would surely see him in the shake-up here, even from his rotten draw, but whether he is yet back to his best only the race will truly reveal.
Royal Ridge and Governor General
Also doing battle for the De Kock yard are Royal Ridge and Governor General. The former appeared to improve somewhat when he stayed on well to beat Gauteng Guineas fourth Heavy Metal by one length in a minor Feature event over 1600m here earlier in March and could sneak into the money if repeating that effort, but a good deal more will be needed for him to win. Governor General was drawn wide when beaten 13 lengths in the Gauteng Guineas and looked to be improving before that, but he is drawn the worst of the lot this time and makes little appeal.
Heavy Metal
Heavy Metal may have been racing a bit too soon after his rather unexpectedly good effort in the Gauteng Guineas when beaten one length by Royal Ridge a week later, but he really should have won the more recent race. It was a handicap, and Heavy Metal contested it off his pre-Guineas rating of 89 and not the 100-odd which he ran to in the Guineas. He has always been highly regarded by connections and was thought good enough to make the long haul to Kenilworth for the Cape Guineas, but he doesn’t look like the most straight forward of horses and has only won once from eight starts. He may yet improve with racing, but will certainly need to do so here.
Whiteline Fever and Pomodoro
Heavy Metal’s stable companions Whiteline Fever and Pomodoro were both a bit disappointing in the Gauteng Guineas, finishing five lengths eighth and 3.75 lengths seventh behind the winner respectively. They’d earlier finished second and fourth respectively in the Dingaans, beating the subsequent Gauteng Guineas winner in the process, and are clearly very useful when they’re at their best. Both can improve over 1800m, with Whiteline Fever arguably the one with the greater scope going forward, and one of them at least may well find himself in the mix at the finish on Saturday. With Robbie Fradd having parted ways from the Sean Tarry yard, Anton Marcus rides Whiteline Fever and Weichong Marwing partners Pomodoro – which hardly ruins the chances of either horse even if it is hard to work out which colt may be considered to be the “elect” in the absence of a stable jockey.
Baracah and E-Jet
Also representing the Tarry stable are Baracah and E-Jet. The former was running on when beaten 2.5 lengths in the Gauteng Guineas, but has a quite a lot to prove here even if he can certainly not be judged on his penultimate effort, where he stopped to nothing and trailed in a distance behind Slumdogmillionaire over 1800m. E-Jet was drawn wide when beaten 7.25 lengths in the Gauteng Guineas and will enjoy going back up in distance, but he has finished unplaced in three tries at Listed or Graded level and should be held safe.
Winter Mischief
KZN visitor Winter Mischief looks likely to appreciate this stiff course-and-distance considerably more than the sharp Greyville circuit, where he ran well below his rating in his last two starts over 1600m. That said, he was beaten 2.25 lengths by Pomodoro at level weights in a Listed event over 1600m at Clairwood last October and has plenty to find at this level. Also making the trip from Durban is Indian Hawk, who has been a model of consistency in four starts since being gelded last October and who ran on when 0.75 lengths second behind unbeaten Northern Emperor (a winner again since) over 1600m on the Scottsville inner course last month. He is probably some four or five pounds better than his 91 merit rating as he could not be penalised for finishing second in plate races the last two times, but even so he does appear to face an uphill struggle against the best of this field.
Reserve runners
Reserve runners Zambucca and Carnaby Street look well held, with the former having finished ninth in the Gautentg Guineas and the latter being treated to a 5.80 lengths drubbing by Slumdogmillionaire at Listed level in January.
About the pace
The pace may not be all that hot, despite the maximum sized field. Mushreq is the only one who has regularly been ridden from the front, and could find himself dictating matters once again. A less-than-frantic tempo would suit Gimmethegreenlight to perfection, as he can race up handy and use his turn of foot to good effect. He has the credentials to win, and seems a fairly obvious first choice. The rest of the Classic is much harder to unravel, but it may be Slumdogmillionaire, Whiteline Fever, Silver Flyer, and Potala Palace (especially if the going is soft) who will fare best of the others.
