A highly competitive dozen of 3yo fillies line up for the Gr3 Umzimkhulu Stakes, over 1400m on the Greyville turf track.
The majority won or placed at their last start, so there is form and ratings to rely on.
Flashback to 2016 – Fromafar bucked the favourite trend
Weights are set at 54kg for up to 2 wins, with an additional 2kg for each further win. On top of that Gr1 winners get 3kg, Gr2 winners 2kg and Gr3 winners 1 kg, provided those wins were during the last 18 months – which is a pretty stupid constraint, considering these are 3yo fillies, who 18 months ago (as 2yo’s) hadn’t even started to race – never mind in black type races.
Favourites tend to have a good record in this race, even though last year’s 22/1 winner Fromafar might have you think differently.
Vaughan Marshall – will be keen to get The Secret Is Out back into winning ways
Top weighted is The Secret Is Out, winner last season of the Gr1 Allan Robertson Fillies Championship and Gr3 Strelitzia Stakes at her first two starts. She didn’t race from June to October, returning to the track in Cape Town.
Things didn’t quite go to plan there. Below best on return, she bled next time out, causing her to miss the subsequent major features.
The Secret Is Out was off from November to January, running somewhat below best on her return when well supported in a 1200m fillies handicap.
Not seen out since, she will be on a mission to re-kindle her reputation and add further to her already impressive stud-value. Time will tell.
Second highest weighted in The High Life, winner of her last two starts (and four of her last six). Her last win was in a fillies handicap over 2000m on Met-day in January. She has mainly been campaigned over a mile and more, so this race may be just a pipe opener. On ratings she has a bit to find in this company.
Sail will be fit and ready
Third highest weight Sail took on the best of all ages during the Cape season. She showed consistent form in terms of ratings, finishing some three lengths off the winners in all of the Guineas, Paddock and Majorca Stakes.
Prior to that she’d beaten The Secret Is Out by 2 lengths under the same weight conditions as here. Trained by Dennis Drier she’s bound to be fit and ready, and this could be her moment.
The Secret Is Out – last season’s Gr1 2yo winner is out to prove she still has what it takes
Final Judgement, like Sail, competed in the major fillies races during the Cape season. Her best effort, in terms of ratings, was when 2 lengths sixth to Bela-Bela in the Paddock Stakes, and a length ahead of Sail. The two meet under the same weight conditions here, and Final Judgement also hasn’t raced since January.
A Womens Way had useful 2yo form, but less so in three starts as a 3yo, in sprints. She tries 1400m for the first time. On ratings she has a bit to find against the top weights. The same goes for Tanami, who won her last start, but goes in at the deep end here.
Dawn Calling comes out top of the Sporting Post ratings, thanks to her efforts in major 2yo features in July at this track.
Final Judgement pips Dawn Calling
She was beaten a whisker by Final Judgement in one, and a length by Querari Falcon in another. Her subsequent form, as a 3yo, has been disappointing. She was last seen out early in January this year, so it is hard to know what to expect here, fitness-wise.
Gimme Six ran to a career-best rating last time out, over 1400m at Kenilworth at the end of February. As a 2-time winner she’s favoured at the weights, and with further improvement must be a serious contender here.
Justin Snaith – saddles Gimme Six
She beat Trippi’s Girl by half a length in a 1400m handicap on Met-day, and is 2kg better off here. Trippi’s Girl did win last time out after being slow away, to record a career-best rating in a 1200m sprint at Scottsville. There may not be much between her and Gimme Six this time, despite the weight turnover.
The bottom three have not shown enough to be taken seriously in this company.
Expect as close a finish as we’ve seen earlier in the year in fillies races in the Cape, with all of Sail, Final Judgement, Gimme Six, Dawn Calling and Trippi’s Girl trying to outgun The Secret Is Out.
That’s half the field!
