Just how good is Lazer Star? And how will she cope with the extra distance in the Three Troikas Stakes over 1450m? Have no fear.
Ormond Ferraris’ 3yo Toreador filly is good, very good.
Her current MR of 106 should be on the low side, given the ease of her four career victories from 4 starts, by a combined 14 lengths. In sprints! It isn’t often that the Sporting Post ratings are higher than the official handicapper’s MR, but that is just the case with Lazer Star. Our 109 vs the official MR 106 tells a tale: she’s the best 3yo filly in the land.
Blood Test
That Lazer Star is better than rated right now looks a sound prediction.
She hasn’t raced beyond 1200m, but she’s bred to stay 1400m (even though her full sister Beautiful Princess did not win beyond 1200m).
Her sire Toreador did stay 1400m, and so did her dam Empress of Ozz, who won from 1400 to 1450m, rated MR 96. The Empress is a daughter of Red Ransom stallion Sri Pekan, who won the Gr2 Champagne Stakes over 7f, and sired the Gr1 Del Mar Oaks and Gr1 Italian Derby winners. Sri Pekan had three daughters to race in South Africa, who all stayed 1400m and more.
Lazer Star has won all four of her starts to date by racing handy or upfront, three times with Marwing in the saddle – he knows her well now. Drawn a handy five on the tight inner track, she should have no problem getting handy again and point the way home.
Are there any dangers at all?
Lazer Star carries top weight of 58kg and gives between 3.5kg and 7.5kg (7 to 15 MR points) to her opponents. That’s not nothing.
One to keep an eye on should be Pennington Sands, drawn 3, and weighted with a handy 50.5kg.
The daughter of Mogok surprised with a fifth place, some two lengths behind Same Jurisdiction,Carry On Alice and Bilateral in the Gr1 Thekwini Stakes over a mile at Greyville last July. She has had three runs as a 3yo, first running a close second to Flame Cat over 1200m, then fluffing her lines in a 1400m event won by Majmu in November. She shipped later that month to the Cape for the R2 million sale race over 1400m, where she was slow away, reported as not striding out, and running well below the form of her Gr1 July effort.
It is hard to say how good she is, but her connections clearly have a high opinion of her, given her racing career to date. The 15 MR points advantage with Lazer Star is massive, but counts only if Pennington Sands can repeat her best rating to date. She’s got it all to prove.
Wide Draw
Silver Class finished second to Lazer Star in the 1160m Swallow Stakes last time out, and was beaten over three lengths in receipt of 3kg.
Silver Class came from off the pace that time, running on well, producing a rating with us which was a bit lower than her best (which had been over 1400m). The weight difference will be 5.5kg here, not enough to turn the tables, especially from her wide draw at 11.
Her stable companion Chili Chocolate, carrying 50.5kg, probably has as good a chance if she can reproduce her run against Rich Girl in last year’s Ready To Run Cup. Her only effort since then, when fourth in a race over this course and distance, wasn’t encouraging, although she did miss the start there. She was entered for an 1800m event at the abandoned Turffontein meeting last Saturday.
Tarry Duo
Trainer Sean Tarry has a double entry, of which Bichett may be the pick. She’s a winner of two of three starts to date, and has Khumalo in the saddle. On ratings the daughter of Western Winter has a bit to find, but she’s no doubt better than the ratings of her two 1400m efforts show. The race will tell. Tarry’s other entry Run For Revelry put up her best effort in the Thekwini Stakes at Greyville in July last year, some six lengths behind Same Jurisdiction from a poor draw.
Pennington Sands was about four lengths ahead of her in the same race, and ought to have the measure of Run For Revelry again.
Another likely improver looks to be Sensible Lover, an Australian bred daughter of Al Mufti’s staying daughter Almah (who was exported and went to stud in Australia). Her sire Good Journey is a son of Nureyev, and 3-part related to sire Spinning World. Good Journey was a miler in US and France, and this 1450m probably will be Sensible Lover’s minimum trip over which to excel.
No Spoilers
The remainder of the runners are pretty well exposed, and seem unlikely to play a spoiling role.
The expectation is of a true run race, with Lazer Star close to or at the head of affairs. She should keep her unbeaten record and reputation intact. Pennington Sands and the Van Vuuren coupling of Silver Class and Chili Chocolate can fight out the places.
The past winners:
.
Three Troikas S. | ||
12/02/2005 | ||
1 | Fair Maiden | 54.0 ( 7) 7/10 |
2 | Dash For Gretna | 56.5 ( 2) 16/1 |
3 | Far De Vie | 57.5 ( 8) 14/1 |
08/04/2006 | ||
1 | Patchouli Moon | 57.0 ( 2) 18/10 |
2 | School Assembly | 57.5 ( 6) 33/10 |
3 | Uptown Girl | 55.0 ( 3) 8/1 |
05/04/2007 | ||
1 | Royal Fantasy | 57.0 ( 7) 15/10 |
2 | Surabi | 57.0 ( 6) 5/2 |
3 | Ethereal Lady | 58.0 ( 8) 22/10 |
02/02/2008 | ||
1 | Acoustical | 53.5 ( 1) 28/10 |
2 | Alpine Club | 53.5 ( 4) 20/1 |
3 | Paint The Town | 53.5 ( 3) 14/1 |
07/02/2009 | ||
1 | Sharp Mistress | 51.5 ( 5) 9/2 |
2 | Sweet Theresa | 56.5 ( 3) 22/10 |
3 | On Her Toes | 58.0 ( 2) 7/2 |
09/02/2010 | ||
1 | Catherina Lady | 55.5 ( 1) 16/1 |
2 | Cashew Nut | 55.5 (10) 50/1 |
3 | All Afire | 58.0 ( 8) 13/2 |
3 | Theta | 53.5 ( 3) 25/1 |
05/02/2011 | ||
1 | Hollywoodboulevard | 58.0 ( 2) 16/10 |
2 | Without Malice | 55.0 ( 9) 9/1 |
3 | Mina Salaam | 53.0 (10) 20/1 |
04/02/2012 | ||
1 | Go Indigo | 58.0 ( 2) 8/1 |
2 | Extra Zero | 56.0 ( 8) 17/20 |
3 | Awesome Beauty | 56.0 ( 3) 7/1 |
09/02/2013 | ||
1 | King’s Temptress | 52.5 ( 8) 11/2 |
2 | Cherry On The Top | 58.0 ( 5) 1/1 |
3 | Sea Shadow | 56.0 ( 2) 12/1 |
3 | Margot On Stage | 50.0 (10) 14/1 |
08/02/2014 | ||
1 | Athina | 54.0 ( 7) 9/2 |
2 | Close The Gap | 57.0 (12) 7/2 |
3 | Winter Star | 58.0 (11) 8/1 |