Favourites have a pretty good record in the SA Oaks. In the last dozen years eight of them have won, four of those odds-on.
Flashback – SA Oaks winner Ash Cloud
The two longest priced winners were Arcola (25/1) in 2010 and Ash Cloud (16/1) in 2014 – both bred by Varsfontein manager Carl de Vos.
Third highest odds for a winner was the 9/1 of last year’s winner Juxtapose – bred by Varsfontein!
A check of this year’s twelve runners throws up Varsfontein-bred and owned runner Bi Pot – what odds history repeats?
Stamina should be the key for the 2450m SA Oaks, which carries a stake of R1 million as third leg of the Wilgerbosdrift Triple Tiara – but there will be no winner of that triple. The first two legs had different winners, who are both in the field again, sharing the highest official MR at 99 – Smiling Blue Eyes for Sean Tarry and Orchid Island for Mike de Kock.
Fillies Guineas winner Smiling Blue Eyes has a point to prove in the Wilgerbosdrift SA Oaks
Smiling Blue Eyes was a convincing winner of the Fillies Guineas at long odds, and had been fully expected to also get the second leg, SA Fillies Classic. Somehow she wasn’t herself in that race, and despite starting favourite ran way below best.
Orchid Island had been the punter’s choice for the Fillies Guineas, when finishing third. Based on that outcome she was made second favourite to Smiling Blue Eyes in the SA Fillies Classic, and took the honours after the favourite failed.
That Classic was rather a strange race, slow run and decided in a sprint, with less than a length covering the first five home.
Bi Pot ran third, just ahead of Belle Rose and Oriental Oak – all three are in the Oaks, their new MR’s reflecting the close finish of the Classic – but not necessarily their real ability.
The Oaks will be an interesting re-match, not just for the top rated pair, but for all of the top-five Classic finishers. In terms of stamina, the breeding of all five passes muster.
Smiling Blue Eyes is by Dynasty out of Sage Blue, making her a full sister to mile-and-a-half winner Sage Throne and half sister to Daily News winner Russian Sage.
Orchid Island looks very decent
Orchid Island is by Silvano, her dam Ilha Grande a 2000m winning daughter of Ilha da Vitoria. That makes her a half sister to SA Oaks winner Ilha Bela.
Bi Pot is by Judpot, sire of last year’s Oaks winner Juxtapose, out of Alexandra Bi, a mare by Darshaan who also is the dam of SA Derby runner-up Pavlovich and 2600m winner Masterly (by Jet Master).
Belle Rose is by Golden Sword, runner-up in the Irish Derby, out of sprint/miler Vin Fizz. Belle Rose has already won over 2000m, so probably takes after her sire stamina-wise.
Belle Rose – plenty of stamina
Oriental Oak is by Silvano out of sprint/miler Quickwood. She’s a full sister to Nightingale who stays 2000m, and has herself won over 2000m, so probably takes more after her sire than dam stamina-wise.
That all of them sprinted home so well in the SA Classic make this test of stamina all the more intriguing. Nothing is clear cut.
Captain Gambler and Being Fabulous ran sixth and seventh in the Fillies Classic, beaten three and four lengths at odds of 30/1. The difference in ratings between these two and the five who finished on front of them in the Classic is no reflection of reality – prior to the Classic the difference in ratings was quite different. As there’s doubt about the reliability of the Fillies Classic outcome, Captain and Being should certainly not be ruled out for Oaks trifecta’s and quartets.
The remaining runners have official MR’s which puts them well below classic standard.
Best of them is Marcus’ mount Wind Chill, who finished a close second to Belle Rose in the Oaks Trial, at level weights. Belle Rose’s subsequent showing in the Fillies Classic may give Wind Chill some hope, although the fact that the Classic wasn’t a true run race puts a different face on things. The Oaks will tell.
Parabola, Costa del Sol and Royal Utopia ran behind Belle Rose and Wind Chill in the Oaks Trial, in receipt of between four to six kilos. It is difficult to see them change the order at level weight here.
That leaves Emerald Bay, whose rating of MR 71 says it all.
