The great thing about The July is that it is the race they all want to win.
That gives us, the punters, confidence to have a go on what we like because no one is saving anything for ‘next week’.
Tony Mincione writes that the top horses are shouldering the top weights, fully conscious that you aren’t really great until you have booted the weight home in The July.
That means up to 56kgs for a 3-year-old or 58kg or more if you are 4 or older.
If you can remember to repeat “handicap” under your breath as you study the field, then you can start to look at upcoming horses with less experience, or horses that were very promising but things didn’t pan out and now they lighter and at bigger odds.
A fashion extravaganza (Pic – Gameplan Media)
TV presenters repeat their mantra that “a horse can lose its form, but they never lose their ability”.
Well, it’s just unfortunate that this nonsense is preached because horses lose their ability steadily. In fact, some 2yo’s lose their ability, never mind the average horse whose ability can drop run by run.
The 2020 July is right now defined by the uncertainty that is called Hawwaam.
Right now Hawwaam is favourite for The July, notwithstanding the fact that he could disappoint us all by leaving.
In all likelihood, the 3/1 on offer includes his stated intentions to find a plane.
However, if you want a bet you have to say that finding planes for people and horses is more difficult now than it was a year ago.
Do It Again will be going out to try a hat-trick.
That means this is a horse very comfortable at Greyville so (as with Hawwaam) you can take comfort in a return to a right-handed track.
But also three July wins is a very tall order.
Do It Again steps down from the float – can he do it again? (Pic – Candiese Lenferna)
Each year Do It Again is giving weight to ever more 3yo challengers, so the hurdle grows a little higher. The 10/1 will be a bargain for some and not a cent for others after a poor Cape season by Do It Again’s super high standards.
Rainbow Bridge’s 11/2 maybe a touch generous for a horse that has never run a bad race. Ever. Punters are getting a price about a horse whose nose is never far from the winning line. Ever!
The two Dynasty’s Belgarion and Bunker Hunt loom up next with Belgarion’s credentials of 5 wins from 7 and Bunker Hunt’s Drill Hall blow have both looking more than possible to run very good July’s.
Twist Of Fate’s form hides a horse who could be so much better than finishing positions to date.
His stable companion and last season’s talking horse Vardy has more rumours floating about than pollen in spring which may explain odds in the teens.
Team Golden Ducat after the Cape Derby (Pic – Chase Liebenberg)
The horse left out is Hawwaam and Rainbow Bridge’s little brother and Derby winner, Golden Ducat.
He has every right to be in the betting, and at these odds is justifiably a “lurker”.
The main problem is that if Do It Again carries 60kg, then Golden Ducat (110) works out at 135-110=25 or 12.5 Kgs and 2 Kgs WFA, so 45.5 Kgs but capped to 53 Kgs some 7.5 Kgs under sufferance on official ratings.
Lots to chew on and punters and fanatics can hold onto that little extra hope that Hawwaam stays to keep alive the excitement of the last of the Great Ante-post Races.
Get the latest ante-post betting – click on the image below
