Bravura has hit peak form
In classical music, Bravura is a virtuosic passage intended to show off the skill of a performer, as a solo, often in a cadenza.
Bravura has hit peak form at the perfect time and could be set to give a virtuoso performance for the ages when he takes his place in the hurly-burly of the Vodacom Durban July. Having been out of action for most of 2010 through injury, Bravura looks to be at least as good as ever as a late four-year-old and has plenty going for him as he attempts to join the roll of honour for South Africa’s supreme test of a thoroughbred, writes MATTHEW LIPS.
The most recent summer season at Kenilworth didn’t necessarily leave one with the belief that Bravura was as good as when he rallied under pressure to win the Gr1 Cape Derby in his last start before disappearing for ten months, but it has been a different story in Durban this winter. Joey Ramsden’s gelding ran out the impressive winner of a decent set weights contest over 1500m at Clairwood and was then only collared in the dying strides by outstanding miler Dancewiththedevil in the Gr1 Gold Challenge on the same course last time out. Top class 1600m form is often (although not always) a pointer to success in the July, and there should be no stamina doubts whatsoever with a gelding who looked to have something still in the tank when he won the Cape Derby. He has the ability to race within striking distance of the leaders, which is always a good thing in the July, and although he has never competed in a race around right-handed turns here is no obvious reason to believe it may not suit him. He looks pretty well handicapped on his Gold Challenge effort, where he was only just beaten at WFA by a horse rated three pounds his superior, and it looks to be all systems go for Bravura to be at his absolute best on July day. Whether that will be good enough is of course quite another matter, but there’s a decent chance that it will be.
Igugu - ruling ante-post favorite
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Igugu
Igugu has swept all before her and is the ruling ante-post favourite. She has been almost exclusively kept to competing against three-year-olds of her gender, becoming the first horse to complete the Triple Tiara in Gauteng before opening her Durban account in the Gr1 Woolavington 2000 at Greyville. Critics have pointed out that she has repeatedly beaten the same rivals, proving very little expect that she is a much better horse than the rest of the three-year-old fillies. There seems to be very little middle ground where opinions about her July prospects are concerned. Some pundits reckon she can’t lose, others are adamant that she won’t find a place, fence-sitters are very few and far between. Frankly, it is easy to see Igugu beating every other three-year-old in the race and being beaten by one or two older horses, but that’s as may be. On the plus side, she can race from up front and has won making all the running more than once, which can be a real help down the short Greyville straight. There is no way of knowing just how good she is as she now steps well outside her comfort zone for the first time, but her master trainer Mike de Kock won the July with a similar type (on paper, anyway) in Ipi Tombe back in 2002. There must be a good chance that Igugu will follow suit, no matter what the naysayers believe, but she is in uncharted waters and she is not terribly difficult to oppose at a price which is plenty short enough.
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Super Storm
Super Storm escapes without a penalty for his half-length defeat of stable companion Brown Penny in the Gr3 Cup Trial (handicap) over 1800m in sticky going at Clairwood recently. He perhaps didn’t win as easily as seemed likely when he cruised in behind the leaders for much of the way down the straight, but there is no doubting his courage and he could be handicapped with a reasonable chance of upsetting the better fancied horses here. He has previously won at Greyville, he gets the July distance, and his trainer certainly knows how to win this race.
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Galileo's Destiny
Galileo's Destiny
Galileo’s Destiny
The three-year-old males have been rather a much of a muchness for most of this season, with several of the races for their group producing blanket finishes which looked like something out of a handicap rather than a level weights Classic. There are plenty to choose from here, and it could be said that if you fancy one you have to at least respect numerous others, but the pick of the bunch may be Galileo’s Destiny.
He was racing for the first time since he joined the Mike de Kock stable when he finished 1.5 lengths third behind Super Storm at Clairwood recently and can make the improvement for which his trainer’s new recruits have become famous. He is only half-a-kilo better off with Super Storm, though, and that could place the whole three-year-old male crop into perspective. Galileo’s Destiny has shown he is up there with the best of them, and dead-heated for second place with English Garden on 1.5 kgs worse terms than these in the Gr1 SA Derby in April. If Super Storm can beat Galileo’s Destiny at almost level weights, as he did in the Cup Trial, why can’t he beat every other three-year-old colt or gelding on these terms?
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The Apache
The Gr1 Daily News 2000 at Greyville in June produced precisely the sort of blanket finish alluded to above. The Apache came from near the tail of the field to edge out Run For It and English Garden, with some three lengths covering most of the field. That sort of thing has many experts doubting the strength of the sophomore crop, and it is impossible to deny that there is precious little between a whole bunch of them. The Apache could quite conceivably again come out tops of those who contested the Daily News. He didn’t have the ideal prep for that race after plans to export him had to be abandoned after he had already entered quarantined, and it is reasonable to think that he could even have improved further. His style of racing means that The Apache will always need a bit of luck in running, but we may not have seen the best of him yet.
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Run For It
Run For It has yet to win above Listed level, but he has high class form and finished an excellent two lengths third behind Past Master in the J & B Met. He is another who tends to race from well back in the field and he will need to navigate his way past plenty of horses in the straight. It is arguable that a more galloping course than Greyville would suit him better, but he has as much chance as any others of his age and gender. He was extremely badly hampered in the Gr2 KRA Guineas at his penultimate start and that effort can safely be excused.
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English Garden
Run For It
English Garden is holding his form well and also ran on strongly when a close third in the Daily News 2000. He is yet another whose racing style could see him needing more than a little luck, but all things being equal he is right up there with the leaders of the three-year-old crop. His stamina is not in question, and he was probably unlucky not to finish closer than a joint second with Galileo’s Destiny in the SA Derby. Stable companion Castlethorpe has been a distinctly improved horse since he was gelded during the summer and may have made his move too soon when lacking extra late to finish about three lengths further behind Bravura in the Gold Challenge. The Australian-bred is not certain to stay 2200m, although there is enough stamina in the female side of his pedigree to encourage hope that he will. He is quite possibly well handicapped in relation to most of the other three-year-olds in the race and is not without a chance, but he does remain an unknown quantity and there may just be too many things not to like about a horse who has not won above Gr3 level.
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Black Wing
Black Wing earned himself a tilt at the July when beaten about one length into fourth in the Daily News. He is probably still improving and won four minor races in succession – all at Greyville – between February and April. He is 1 kg better off with the likes of The Apache and Run For It compared to the Daily News and must have a chance of reversing form with them. Whether that is good enough to actually win is a completely different matter, though, and as promising as he is Black Wing’s proximity in the Daily News tends to cast further doubt on the value of that entire formline.
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Past Master
Past Master
Past Master is much better than his no-show effort in the Gold Challenge and notably didn’t fare all that much better in the Gr1 Queen’s Plate before going on to win the J&B Met. He ran on very well to win the Gr2 Drill Hall Stakes over 1400m the only time he was seen at Greyville, but the slow early pace at which the Met was run played right into his hands. There remains a genuine stamina question mark over a horse who was fast enough to win a Gr2 over 1200m last December, and Past Master has it all to do under 60 kgs top weight. He is a high class performer, but history doesn’t favour top weights in the July and others appeal as being more probable winners.
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Pierre Jourdan
Pierre Jourdan is a top class four-year-old and this darling of the Gauteng crowds looks to be right on target after he went close under 62 kgs in the recent Gr3 Jubilee Handicap over 1800m at Turffontein. That was only his second start since he went “wrong” in the Gr1 Summer Cup last November and Gary Alexander’s gelding doesn’t look particularly unkindly weighted on level terms with his contemporary Bravura. It could be argued that he would prefer a shorter distance, but the Greyville 2200m is not overly demanding and horses with high class form over shorter tend to do better than real staying types in the July. He is not without a chance with Hong Kong ace Douglas Whyte up.
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Captain’s Wild
Captain’s Wild made no show when he finished more than ten lengths adrift in the Gold Challenge, when racing around a left-handed turn for the first time. It is easy to be critical of the form of the Gr1 Champion Challenge over 2000m at Turffontein, where Captain’s Wild ran on strongly and finished a neck second behind the enterprisingly-ridden Happy Landing. However, the race was run to suit the winner more than most, and Captain’s Wild did well to make up as much ground as he did in what was effectively a sprint down the straight. He was progressing nicely before his recent Clairwood flop and looks very well set to reverse form with Happy Landing, who would be causing an even bigger surprise than his 55/1 upset in the Champion Challenge if he managed to win again. He was always handy in a slow-run race before pinching a break on his rivals early in the straight, and is highly unlikely to encounter a similarly friendly scenario in the July. An unplaced subsequent effort in the Jubilee Handicap seems to say a lot, and Happy Landing makes very little appeal.
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Bulsara
Bulsara carries the Oppenheimer silks which have been carried to July glory on numerous occasions since the 1950s. He can be given some sort of a chance after he ran on to finish three lengths behind Bravura when third in the Gold Challenge, for he now meets that rival on 2.5 kgs better terms. This stable companion to The Apache was caught too far adrift in the false-run Champion Challenge and stayed on to finish a respectable 3.75 lengths fifth behind Happy Landing. He is not the worst of the outsiders in this year’s line-up, but he is not sure to stay 2200m and he may just lack the kind of knock-out punch that is needed to win at the very highest level.
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Lion In Winter
Lion In Winter could be a more feasible outsider to consider, at least for a minor place. This stable companion to Bravura has finished a few lengths behind that rival in his two starts in KZN this winter, but he goes back up in distance now and didn’t run at all badly when beaten 3.25 lengths into fifth in the J&B Met. The slow early pace would surely not have done him any favours and he is now 3.5 kgs better off with winner Past Master. If you are looking for something to back each way at a big price, Lion In Winter is a long way from being the worst option.
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Flirtation
Flirtation
Flirtation
Flirtation is at her best in strongly-run races and in the circumstances did very well when she ran on from last and finished 1.5 lengths third in the Champion Challenge. She unleashed a storming run from a long way back when she won the Gr1 Summer Cup (hcp) over 2000m last November and is not without some sort of a chance, but Greyville probably isn’t the ideal place for her to strut her stuff and she would be preferred on a galloping course. Stable companion Safwan ran on very well to share first prize with frontrunner Golden Chariot in the Gr2 Betting World 1900 at Greyville in May, but that was a decidedly below-par renewal of a race which in 2011 at least appears to carry very little weight as a July pointer. He is not remotely in the same class as Bold Silvano, who completed the 1900/July double last year, and the fact that he has been catalogued for a reduction sale nine days before the July surely tells a story.
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Emerald Cove
Emerald Cove faces Igugu on 2 kgs better terms for a 2.75 lengths beating in the Woolavington 2000, but that shouldn’t be enough to allow for the form to be reversed, especially as Igugu ultimately won a little more cosily than the margin suggests.
Big City Life won this race in 2009, but he missed out in 2010 with a tendon injury. His first two comeback runs this year were promising enough, but something looked distinctly awry when he faded to finish dead last in the Gold Challenge. Even on best form he would have it all to do under 59.5 kgs, and after his latest display a repeat July success looks an improbable scenario.
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About The Pace
Super Storm
That leaves the question of who will make the running, and how fast they will go. The very real possibility is that the pace won’t be overly strong, although Safwan may well be sent forward to cut out the running from his wide draw, and that the ability to race within reasonable striking distance will be a real plus. Igugu may even attempt to make all the running, if none of her stable companions is roped in to act as a pacemaker, and there is every chance that she will enjoy the run of the race. However, a steadily-run race can also work in favour of Bravura, who has shown he is able to sit in touch with the leaders, and he is the selection to win the 2011 Vodacom Durban July. Igugu, Super Storm, Galileo’s Destiny, and Lion In Winter are selected to follow him home.
