Gibraltar Blue - 3rd in Gr1 Majorca Stakes
Few would argue against Val De Ra being the fastest horse in South Africa at present and she returns to Scottsville for the SA Fillies Sprint on Saturday to try and avenge her sole career defeat to date in the corresponding race a year ago. However, while she would be a no-brainer selection if the race were bring run over 1000m, it is a not nearly so clear-cut over the 1200m of the Fillies Sprint and Gibraltar Blue is may just get the better of Val De Ra where it matters most, writes MATTHEW LIPS.
Gibraltar Blue was barely one month beyond her real third birthday when she led for most of the way before being beaten a neck by Captain’s Gal in this race in 2010, finishing 1.25 lengths in front of third placed Val De Ra, and she is entitled to have made even more improvement than the latter during the intervening twelve months. Mike de Kock’s filly has not raced since she set the pace and ran out of gas very late to finish three-quarters of a length third behind Covenant in the Gr1 Majorca Stakes over 1600m at Kenilworth in January and that lack of a recent race is a possible worry. However, her champion trainer certainly can get them ready at home for big races and Gibraltar Blue could just see out this stiff 1200m a little better than Val De Ra.
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Val De Ra
Val De Ra - fastest horse in SA
On the other hand, Val De Ra had What A Winter 1.25 lengths behind her in second when she led throughout at a blistering clip to win the Gr1 Computaform Sprint at Turffontein recently, and Gibraltar Blue could only finish 2.35 lengths fifth behind What A Winter in the Gr1 Cape Flying Championship back in January. Even the handicappers cannot split the two fillies and have them both rated 111. Val De Ra has plainly come back in great shape from a life-threatening illness and she has won up to 1300m in lesser company, so she is not by any means restricted to the minimum distance. However, whether she is really as good over 1200m as she is over shorter is another matter, and one that perhaps only this race can finally answer one way or the other. She is 1 kg better off with Gibraltar Blue compared to their meeting in this event last season, but that was because of the latter’s northern hemisphere WFA allowance and Gibraltar Blue is narrowly preferred to Val De Ra again.
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Covenant
Covenant enjoyed a terrific summer season at Kenilworth, winning three Graded races in succession up to 1600m including the Gr2 Sceptre Stakes over 1200m, which she won pretty much as she liked. There was no Gibraltar Blue or Val De Ra in that line-up and Gibraltar Blue didn’t quite see out 1600m when beaten into third behind Covenant in the Majorca Stakes. Still, Covenant is a year-younger filly with bags of ability and it would be no surprise at all if she ran them all out of it to win again on Saturday.
Headstrong
Headstrong quickened impressively from well off the pace to beat Dance With Al by 1.75 lengths in a Gr3 WFA event over 1200m at Clairwood in April. That was a career-best effort (at least on turf) for the Irish-bred mare and a nine pound hike in her grass merit rating shows that the handicappers saw it the same way, but she is still rated seven pounds below stable companion Gibraltar Blue and Val De Ra. Headstrong could run into the money, but a win on WFA terms in this company is perhaps too much to ask.
Give Me Five
The same may be true of Give Me Five, who won the Gr1 Allan Robertson over this course-and-distance two years ago but who meets the two highest rated fillies in this field on 4 kgs worse terms than in a handicap. There is a positive side to the equation, however. Give Me Five has been in fine form in Gauteng, winning Graded races in two of her last three starts, and crucially being most effective in races which were run at a very strong pace from the start. It can surely be taken for granted that she will encounter exactly that situation on Saturday and Give Me Five will be doing her best work late. It is debatable whether she can actually win, but she can work her way into a place and she did comfortably beat Headstrong (albeit on 3 kgs better terms than these) over 1160m at Turffontein in April.
Miss Turbulence
Miss Turbulence is very game and didn’t stay 1600m at Gr1 level when she faded after setting the pace in the Empress Club Stakes at Turffontein last month. She is probably better than ever at the age of six, but she faces a stiff task here and others (including some rated slightly her inferior by the handicappers) can prove to be too strong.
Mary Lou
Mary Lou is not entirely consistent and was below best when 5.25 lengths fifth behind Give Me Five in a Gr2 over 1160m at Turffontein late last month. On the other hand, she had Give Me Five 1.75 lengths behind her in third when winning a conditions plate over that same course-and-distance earlier in April and now meets Give Me Five on 4 kgs better terms. That theoretically gives Mary Lou an outside chance, but overall form suggests the likely winner will come from elsewhere.
Romantic Moon
Romantic Moon appeared to have every chance before being beaten almost two lengths behind Headstrong over 1200m at Clairwood last month and proved no match whatsoever for Val De Ra over 1000m two starts ago. She can boast four course-and-distance wins, but exposed form suggests she is unlikely to improve that record here. Mana Mou has plenty of talent and led throughout to win a five runner conditions event over 1000m at Scottsville earlier in May, but she is unpredictable and probably prefers the shorter trip anyway. She faded to nothing when beaten 18 lengths behind stable companion Give Me Five over 1160m at her penultimate start. State Blue failed to quicken when 2.5 lengths third behind Mana Mou over the Scottsville 1000m last time and also looks held safe by the likes of Headstrong and Covenant on previous form.
Covenant - winner of 3 graded races in succession
About The Pace
Charming Lady has it all to do after being very well beaten by Headstrong and Romantic Moon (twice) in her two starts back from an 18 week rest and is surely no match for her stable companion Val De Ra. Roses For Lizzy shows pace, but lacked extra after making the running when beaten 2.4 lengths behind Headstrong at Clairwood last month and also looks well held. Apple Princess is a game performer, buty she has been comfortably beaten by Give Me Five in both of her last two starts and meets the latter 1 kg worse off than when finishing three lengths behind her over 1160m at Turffontein last time out. Fair Rosalind finished further back in both of those races won by Give Me Five and makes no appeal. Autumn Gold comes here on the back of eight unplaced efforts in succession and was beaten more than 13 lengths behind Headstrong at Clairwood in April. She is surely a forlorn proposition here.
A hot pace seems certain, with Val De Ra and Mana Mou likely to blaze a trail with Gibraltar Blue and Roses For Lizzy also in thick of things from the start. The winner will need to be not an iota less than one hundred perfect effective over a stiff 1200m, and that is where Gibraltar Blue (lack of a recent race notwithstanding) may just hold the edge over Val De Ra. They are taken to finish in that order, with plenty of respect also for Covenant. The rest have plenty to do, but Headstrong and Give Me Five could be the best of them.
