The Gauteng raiders hold a strong hand in Saturday’s R1 million Gr1 Investec Cape Derby and Justin Snaith appears to hold the only ace of retaining the coveted silverware in the Cape. He saddles Politician Stakes winner Black Arthur, who faces a tough task taking on Gr1 winner Rabada and Cape Guineas runner-up, Brazuca.
Black Arthur is a progressive sort
Johan Janse van Vuuren sends out joint top-rated Brazuca in his first tilt as a trainer at the Cape Derby and he couldn’t have chosen a tougher class on his first day at school.
The Australian-bred Brazuca certainly has the credentials to win this and comes in fit and with the benefit of a 1 draw at his first try beyond a mile.
Weichong Marwing rode him in the Cape Guineas, where he ran prominently before failing by three quarters of a length to hold the rampant Noah From Goa – probably close to the top 3yo in the country.
His main challenger – certainly on paper – will be Mike Azzie’s Rabada, winner of the Gr1 Premier’s Champion Stakes at Greyville last season, but without a win in two starts this term.
Rabada – shock withdrawal
He gave Black Arthur 5kgs when finishing out of the money and 2,25 lengths back in the Politician Stakes in his first Cape run after a ten week break. He can only improve.
Rabada is not very well drawn at 13 but the services of Anton Marcus and the very fair Kenilworth track could nullify that.
Rabada and Brazuca are rated 10 points or five lengths superior to Eighth Wonder, the next best-rated runner. But this is not a case of looking at things in black and white.
Greg Ennion’s Magnum Cape Classic winner is the third highest rated runner in the race, but was unsighted in both the Selangor Cup and Cape Guineas.
He has drawn out in Youngsfield Military Base and looks to have it all to do on current form.
Justin Snaith – strong hand in the race
Justin Snaith is always the man for the big occasion, and the locals will be looking to him be the party spoiler and the grey cloud for the visitors.
He saddles a trio and best of his could be Black Arthur, who rose to prominence when beating Marinaresco in the Politician Stakes over 1800m, one of the trials for the Cape Derby.
Black Arthur looks to be ahead of the handicapper still and can only get better as he goes futher.
His stablemate Star Chestnut will be ridden by Anthony Delpech, but has been well beaten, albeit not disgraced, since his two wins in the KZN winter.
Snaith’s third runner It’s My Turn is not well drawn at 15 and gets thown in the deep end after four decent career runs. He could be anything.
Tarry Lurker
Sean Tarry saddles a low-profile candidate in the Dynasty colt Liege, who showed a nice form return when powering home for under a length third to Black Arthur in the Politician Stakes.
He is drawn wide out, but he likes to be dopped in and S’manga Khumalo could enjoy better luck than last Saturday’s Sceptre Stakes disaster with Carry On Alice.
The Go Deputy 3yo’s are firing and Adam Marcus trained Royal Badge has won 3 of his 5 starts, without any feature exposue.
He impressed with a decent MR 90 Handicap win beating the older Bianzino last time.
Mike Bass has Marinaresco and Jet Air carrying the flag for the in-form yard.
Politician Stakes rrunner-up Marinaresco is the better of the two but has an awful draw to overcome.
The son of Silvano ran on powerfully to get within 0,75 lengths of Black Arthur in the Politician Stakes and even though he is 1,5kgs worse off with the Snaith galloper, looks a classy progressive sort, who will be running at them late.
The form of his penultimate run, when beaten 1,55 lengths by Milton, was franked when that one chased Light The Lights all the way to the line in the recent Gr2 Peninsula Handicap.
Jet Air is racing off form at the moment and after winning 2 of his first 5 starts, has not quite gone on with things.
Crawford Pair
Brett Crawford has two in the Derby
Brett Crawford’s pair of Nebula and One Away have both been blessed with decent draws.
Corne Orffer rides Nebula, who looks the stronger, but ran 3,50 lengths back in the Politician and is well held by Black Arthur, and a host of others.
One Away has run three modest places since beating the still battling maiden Avail four runs back. He has shown form at 2400m so will definitely stay the Derby trip – but may lack the class.
Vaughan Marshall has three runners in the race, including what looks to be the likely pacemaker in Kemal Kavur.
The son of Warm White Night was there for a long way and showed guts to run a very decent 1,30 length fourth to Black Arthur in the G3 Politician Stakes.
His style of racing suggests he should not be troubled by his 12 draw and it will be interesting to see how the R1,1 million sale graduate goes over the extra 200m.
Stablemate Eastern Charm is much better drawn at 3 and gets the services of stable jockey MJ Byleveld.
He finished marginally behind Kemal Kavur in the Politician Stakes but should enjoy the extra here – he won a weak polytrack 2000m in PE.
Vaughan Marshall – hoping for a big run from his two
The third of the Marshall runners has come in through the back door of the reserve runner facility.
He is the Jay Peg gelding who has won 2 of his last 5 starts – but off a rating of 76 cannot be fancied to trouble the judge.
Paddy Kruyer will be thrilled that his reserve runner Mega Secret gets a run but it is difficult seeing a tried maiden getting the better of the top-rated runners in a race of this nature.
The proven highly rated Brazuca and Rabada are the obvious duo to fight this out. But Snaith’s Black Arthur has been brought along with this target in mind and ranks as a major threat.
Of the rest, the poorly dawn Marinaresco could enjoy some luck, while Liege and Royal Badge could be the value runners.
