With warm and sunny weather forecast, and temperatures expected to reach 30 degrees, we are all set for Saturday’s Gr1 Cape Guineas at Kenilworth.
It’s a highly competitive renewal of the prestigious classic, with at least six runners in with a serious chance of lifting the silverware.
The first race of nine races is off at 12h35 .
Racing is on the summer course, with the false rail set at 2m out from the 1700m mark, with a 4m spur at the 600m mark.
Once again a Cape Gr1 raceday is without any carryovers, and we have asked the powers-that-be to explain to Joe Public why the Summer Cup meeting was boosted with R7,2 million, while the Cape fans get a round zero.
Is the pot empty? Your guess is as good as ours.
Whilst the Cape Guineas itself looks difficult to decipher, with at least half a dozen in with winning chances, Cape Racing suggests that there are more clear-cut betting opportunities in the supporting features.
Warrior runs in Race 8, a Pinnacle Stakes, with persuasive claims. He looks way ahead of the official handicapper after beating Rascallion at level weights in his first run after gelding. This son of Futura looks a Gr1 horse in the making based on that sterling performance in the Cape Mile where he smashed an eye-popping speed score of 111.
As an unfortunate aside, super-dependable Rascallion, who has been placed in multiple G1,2 and 3’s over a variety of distances, injured a suspensory ligament when defeating Do It Again at his follow- up and is out for the season. Trainer Vaughan Marshall will reassess his charge after at least two months box rest and shockwave treatment. A decision about his career prospects will be taken in February 2022.
Warrior faces last year’s Cape Guineas winner Russian Rock who holds a nomination for the Met.
The grey should actually relish a longer route based on pedigree but tends to pull and waste energy hence trainer Kannemeyer’s decision to restrict him to these 1400m trips. Russian Rock is game and capable of finishing quickly, yet the conviction is that Warrior will beat him in receipt of 4.5 kg’s.
Silver Operator ran a towering figure behind Seeking the Stars at Durbanville only to be put in his place by Warrior in the Cape Mile.
Quite probably, a similar fate awaits this time, too. Course and distance specialist Pinkerton could be a threat for the places from an ideal inside alley as he reeled off a succession of wins last summer, attaining neat speed scores of 106.
Top sprinter Kasimir tries the 1400m again (Pic – Candiese Lenferna)
Former champion sprinter Kasimir tries 1400m again.
He tangled with high class, One World over this distance, so it is within his ambit, but concerns about his current condition persist. He’s won 11 races in an illustrious career, so his class is not in question. However, vet reports of making respiratory noises and hanging at his two most recent starts don’t inspire confidence. Up-and-coming stable mate Warrior appeals far more strongly.
Marina will be a firm favourite in the Gr3 Victress Stakes. The imposing chestnut filly is related to former July winner, Marinareso. He was physically small but with a zippy turn of foot and blessed with a real will to win. His sister is tall and leggy, with a great action – once she hits top gear, she too can really turn it on. She has already run impressive speed scores of 106 and 108 (twice) in her 12-start career, most notably finishing her races off powerfully.
Candice Bass-Robinson also saddles stable mate Chat Ching who is officially top rated in this 1800m contest run at Weight for Age. She would be a serious menace if running back to her fine try in the 2021 Paddock Stakes.
Gqeberha raider Santa Therese sure knows how to win (Pic – Pauline Herman)
Alan Greeff raids with PE filly, Santa Therese who has won 8 of ten starts in her hometown.
Horses with a winning habit must always be respected but she will need to boost her best figure of 98 as she faces much tougher rivals here. Bigger dangers to Marina could be the determined front runner Pretty Betty, pace-pressing Rain In Newmarket and Andre Nel’s dangerous swooper, So Flawless.
Justin Snaith seemingly has the Gr2 Peninsula Handicap under control. In this 1800m event, he sends out well-performed, top weight Hoedspruit, middle weight Native Tongue and light weight, One Way Traffic, who is being touted as a long-range Vodacom Durban July candidate. If he is indeed close to that standard, then he could be too hot to handle carrying only 52.5kgs.
One Way Traffic – handy weight! (Pic – Chase Liebenberg)
One Way Traffic has won four of his last five starts, including a last out defeat of Bayberry in the Settlers Trophy.
This is altogether more difficult, but he appears a rapidly progressive four-year-old with natural talent. He likes to race handy then quicken up – an ideal way to take advantage with a light mass. All things considered One Way Traffic could live up to his name under S’Manga Khumalo.
The Place Accumulator opens in Race 3 with the Need for Speed Sprint over 1000m. There are a few in here with chances including in-form entries, Intrepid and Fifty Fiver – however, preference is for African Rain who really impressed at his last start.
Previously, a bit of a tearaway that only just lasted home over the short cuts, he responded encouragingly when handled with more restraint in the early stages of his most recent outing. Once unleashed, he bolted in full of energy, probably making him the horse to beat despite carrying top weight of 60kg’s.
Though he cannot be described as a good thing, Bereave is the choice in the South Easter Sprint, a handicap over 1100m, carded as Race 4, the opening leg of the Pick 6. He emerged with credit when getting close to Vikram in the Cape Merchants after starting slowly. He cannot afford to duff the start again with 100m less to play catch up – but given a clean get-away he can add a fourth victory to his already promising, nine start career.
Punters taking single race exotics like exactas and trifectas can use Gr1 juvenile winner, Ambiorix , who should strip fitter now after a comeback run a month ago, and way above average three-year-olds, Resonate and Safe Return.
Gr1 winner Ambiorix gave the Guineas a miss (Pic – Chase Liebenberg)
Add two equally fast sprinters in Worlds Your Oyster and Pleasedtomeetyou who share speed scores of 105, and, with Brett Crawford having his string in such fine fettle, it’s probably a good idea to lob his feisty, front running filly, Walk of Fame into calculations as well.
Race 9 may be a low-grade MR 82 handicap, but it will assume greater importance for bettors alive going into the last leg of the P6, as well as forward-thinking punters trying to get a handle on plausible Cape Derby candidates for early next year.
Jockey, Richard Fourie reckons hat-trick seeking, Senso Unico could be up to Derby standard; Gimmie a Star earned a fine figure of 98 + at his most recent victory and Van Hunks has been finishing with verve over shorter and is bred to love the longer route of 1800m.
It should be a revealing spectacle to cap an enticing programme of quality races at Kenilworth.
Don’t miss the video/podcast of A Shaw Thing on Saturday morning!
