Cape Derby: a flying Top Seller mugs Il Saggiatore on the line
The Investec Cape Derby always looked potentially ripe for an unexpected result. The only three horses in the 14 runner field to have raced over the Derby distance of 2000m were amongst the four lowest rated in the line-up, none of them had managed a win at the distance, and only one of them had placed when trying the trip. That left an awful lot of gaps in the picture which only the race could fill and it was Top Seller who filled them when he grabbed a narrow success at Tote odds of around 40/1, writes Matthew Lips.
In truth, the almost complete disregard which punters had for Top Seller’s chances was a little surprising given that he had finished second behind What A Winter in the Gr 2 Selangor Cup and third behind Solo Traveller and What A Winter in the Gr 3 Cape Classic earlier in the season. He had perhaps been a little below best in more recent starts, but blinkers were refitted for the first time since the Cape Classic and the step up in distance always seemed like it could suit a colt who was able to win over 1600m in soft going as a two-year-old.
Nevertheless, Top Seller was practically ignored in the market and it was Cape Guineas winner Solo Traveller – the only previous Gr 1 scorer in the field – who started as the 15/10 favourite to complete the Cape classic double. Il Saggiatore was a well backed 5/1 second favourite, with M’Lords Throat next in line at 15/2.
The early pace was reasonable if hardly spectacular, with Arabian Empire showing the way ahead of M’Lords Throat, Make My Grey, and Solo Traveller. Castlethorpe tracked these in turn as Bastille Day raced towards the rear with Lucky Moon last of all. Il Saggiatore was also well back in the field after having once again been slow away, while Marthinus Mienie (standing in for the injured MJ Byleveld) had Top Seller racing in the pack. M’Lords Throat and Solo Traveller quickly came forward once in the straight, with M’Lords Throat making a beeline for the far rail as soon as he’d straightened up and being sent for home.
Il Saggiatore made good headway to join issue around 200m from home, joining battle with M’Lords Throat as Solo Traveller didn’t quite finish things off in behind them. Il Saggiatore edged past M’Lords Throat in the dying stages, but Top Seller was making good headway wider out and in a heart-stopping finish managed to snare Il Saggiatore in virtually the last stride to prevail by a head. M’Lords Throat fought all the way to the line and was only another head away in third, with Mystic Moon staying on well to be three-quarters of a length further adrift in fourth. Solo Traveller finished fifth, 1.70 lengths behind the winner. The favourite had every chance, but left the impression that he didn’t quite see out the distance and at this stage of his career at least Solo Traveller is probably more effective over 1600m than 2000m.
Bunched finishes have been a hallmark of several big races at the Cape this season, the Guineas amongst them, and the trend continued in the Derby. Less than two lengths covered the first seven finishers, which may well suggest that the race was run at a false pace, but the fact that the winner and runner-up both came from some way back at the top of the straight conversely suggests that the Derby wasn’t the false-run affair that the bunched finish might imply. Top Seller saw the distance out well, as did all of the placed horses, and given the lack of exposed 2000m form going into the Derby there is no reason to think that the result isn’t “true.”
Solo Traveller stood out on merit ratings and weights, but he’d earned that rating over 1600m and the result here reinforces the view that Justin Snaith’s colt is considerably better over a mile than beyond it. Solo Traveller aside, Top Seller was rated within one pound of second highest rated The Plunderer (who may have failed to get the distance and who had never raced around a left-handed turn) and really wasn’t quite the “shock” winner that he may appear based solely on the betting market. Whether this was a vintage Derby field is more debatable, but Top Seller had run well against the best of his age on more than one occasion already and looks to have been a thoroughly deserving winner.
Top Seller is a colt from the final crop of the pensioned-off Al Mufti. He is the fifth foal and fourth winner produced from Northern Guest mare Top Of The Range, who won one race over 1300m but who is the half sister to Gr 2 winner Jessamine. The latter is the dam of the Gr1-winning full brothers The Sheik (himself successful in the Cape Derby of 2000) and Al Nitak, both sons of Al Mufti and therefore three-parts brothers to Top Seller. Top Seller failed to reach his reserve of R280 000 when offered at the 2009 National Yearling Sale and races in the colours of his breeder Roy Eckstein. Trained by Vaughan Marshall, Top Seller has won three times from 12 starts for stakes of R589 277.
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Investec Cape Derby (SAf-G1) (1/29)
Kenilworth, South Africa, January 29, R600.000, 2000m, turf, good, 2.04.99 (CR 2.22.1).
TOP SELLER (SAF), 58.0, b c 3, Al Mufti – Top Of The Range (SAF) by Northern Guest. Owner & breeder R S Eckstein (SAF); trainer V H Marshall; jockey M Mienie (R375.000)
Il Saggiatore (AUS), 58.0, b g 3, Galileo – Smidgin (AUS) by Snippets (AUS)
M’lords Throat (SAF), 58.0, b c 3, Silvano (GER) – Grace Me Guide (SAF) by Western Winter
Margins: nose, nose, ¾
Also ran: Mystic Moon (SAF) 58.0, Solo Traveller (SAF) 58.0, Nysean Bolt (SAF) 58.0, Bastille Day (SAF) 58.0, Arabian Empire (AUS) 58.0, The Plunderer (SAF) 58.0, Code Rock (SAF) 58.0, Castlethorpe (AUS) 58.0, Orchard House (SAF) 58.0, Lucky Moon (SAF) 58.0, Make My Grey (SAF) 58.0
