After the July euphoria the blues: top-weighted State Blue is the selection for the E-Cape Breeders Stakes
The East Cape Breeders Stakes, held over from last week after racing was relocated from Fairview to Arlington, has been added to the programme for this Friday’s meeting at Fairview. A conditions event for fillies and mates, it has attracted a bumper-sized field going in search of some precious Black Type, writes MATTHEW LIPS.
State Blue would be a blinder on paper if the race were run at WFA, but it isn’t and some caution is in order. However, Justin Snaith’s four-year-old has consistent form and ran a blinder when she finished 2.60 lengths fourth behind Val De Ra on WFA terms in the Gr 1 SA Fillies Sprint over 1200m at Scottsville two starts ago. She followed that up with a solid third place behind useful Carey’s Qui in a plate race over 1100m at Greyville in June, form which was franked when the fourth horse won subsequently. State Blue has a favourable outside draw and can go close with Fayd’herbe aboard, but she can expect some lively opposition.
State Blue’s stable companion My Kazzie was making her PE debut after a 19 week rest when she ran on very strongly and finished less than one length fourth behind Illumiere in a set weights race over 1400m in sticky going at Arlington in May. She is entitled to have improved with that effort and is unbeaten from two starts over 1200m. She merits respect even though she is not favourably drawn at 1 and meets State Blue on 2 kgs worse terms than in a handicap.
Captain’s Cove adds to the strong hand held by the Snaith yard in this race. Already the winner of a similar race over this course-and-distance in March, Captain’s Cove has been the model of consistency and finished within about a neck of Shahrezade in a handicap over 1000m on yielding ground at Arlington in May. She is now back to what seems her optimum distance and faces Shahrezade on 2.5 kgs better terms, so Captain’s Cove has a very good chance of reversing that form. Shahrezade has shown that she gets 1200m and could sneak into a minor place, but she has quite a stiff test as her apprentice rider cannot claim his allowance in this Feature event.
Also doing battle for the Snaith yard are Hurricane Katrina, Ribbons For Thee, and first reserve runner Christina. This distance may now be too short for Hurricane Katrina, but the grey daughter of Windrush is at least well proven on rain-affected ground and was returning from a 14 week rest when beaten around two lengths behind Ocean Of Time in a recent Listed race over 1600m in heavy going at Kenilworth. She did win over 1200m earlier in her career and can be given an outside chance. Ribbons For Thee has never run close to her very best form on going that was even slightly soft and seems likely to find conditions dead against her. She seems most effective over 1000m, anyway. Christina would appear to be outclassed at the weights even if she does secure a spot in the final line-up.
My Kazzie - Unbeaten 2/2 over 1200m
Roses For Lizzy showed plenty of pace when trained in KZN and now makes her PE debut with title-chasing Anthony Delpech aboard for the Gavin Smith yard. She has won on genuinely soft ground and could be set for a form return in her new surroundings, but she finished more than a dozen lengths behind State Blue in the SA Fillies Sprint and a 3 kgs swing in her favour doesn’t look nearly enough to allow for that form to be reversed. However, merit ratings tell a different story as Roses For Lizzy is only half-a-kilo worse off with State Blue than would be the case in the handicap, and if that assessment proves to be correct then she has an undeniable chance of landing the spoils.
Perestroika is very quick and was returning from an 11 week rest when she led from a long way out to beat Chekeche by one length in a Listed handicap for females over 1000m in soft going at Arlington last month. Yvette Bremner’s filly has won three times from five tries over this course-and-distance, so she clearly sees it out well. She easily has the measure of stable companion Chekeche again on these weight terms, but more pertinently she meets Captain’s Cove on 6 kgs worse terms than when beating that rival by 2.25 lengths over 1000m in March. Perestroika won so easily that she must be considered a possible threat again, but the weights give Captain’s Cove an excellent chance of reversing that form and she is indeed preferred of the two.
Miss Var is a talented sprinter on her day, but she has been below best in yielding and soft going the last two times and that must set alarm bells ringing in the circumstances. She faded when beaten almost five lengths behind Perestroika over 1000m in the soft last time and conditions – plus a less favourable low draw – leave Miss Var looking decidedly vulnerable here. Stable companion Big On Broadway could be a sneaker in this pack if she comes back to her juvenile form of last season, when she finished less than one length behind subsequently exported Mahbooba in a Gr 2 over 1200m at Scottsville. She is by no means certain to be anything like as effective more than a year later, but she could easily have needed her PE debut race after a 23 week rest when making no show in a minor event at Fairview in May.
Paramo gets blinkers for the first time and may improve, but she will certainly need to do so if she is to be a factor on weight terms which do her no favours. She will enjoy this drop in distance, though, having tired late after setting the pace over 1400m at Arlington in June. That was only her second PE appearance and 1200m could well be her optimum distance, but all things considered others do appeal as being more probable winners. Check It was making her PE debut when she finished just ahead of Paramo in the Arlington 1400m event won by Fancy Park, but she needs to do a good deal more to win this and the drop in distance could suit Paramo the better of the two.
Sammy Jo has been in excellent form and ran on very well from off the pace when she won a Listed event over 2000m at Fairview last month. She would prefer more ground, but the daughter of Dynasty is versatile and ran on well when beaten half-a-length by Zaafiel in a set weights race over 1200m at Arlington in April. She did finish a short head in front of Captain’s Cove and as such she cannot be without an each way chance, but the feeling persists that she would be better off in a race around the turn. She could only finish 5.40 lengths twelfth behind Captain’s Cove over the course-and-distance in March, when last competing over a straight course.
San Remo has been tried over a wide range of distances lately, putting up her best effort when 3.75 lengths third behind Sammy Jo in a Listed race over 2000m. Her only win came over 1000m, so she doesn’t seem to care much about distance, but she still has a lot to find to win this. Shee’s Gone West was below best when tried over 1400m at her penultimate start, but has posted three very easy wins from as many tries down the Fairview straight course. She rises considerably in class after posting a 2.5 lengths win in a merit rated 73 handicap over the course-and-distance and does have something to prove, but she could be considerably better than her 81 rating and she has won on yielding ground. She has an outside chance.
Kwacha shows pace and is a course-and-distance winner, but she looks to have too much to do at the weights and looks a bit inferior on past form to her stable companions Perestroika and Shahrezade. She acts on soft ground and is nicely drawn, but others are selected. Outofthisworld possibly failed to stay 1600m on soft ground when making no show at Arlington last month and had Sam Remo 2.5 lengths behind her in third when scoring over 1400m at this course two starts ago. She has an awful lot to do on merit ratings, though, and looks outclassed. Second reserve runner Welsh Kitten also looks out of her depth on these weight terms and is 4.5 kgs worse off with Shahrezade than when she was beaten a head by that stable companion over the Arlington 1000m in May.
There should be no shortage of pace on from the start, with Roses For Lizzy, Perestroika, the newly blinkered Paramo, Miss Var, and Kwacha all liking to get on with things early. It’s hard to be overly confident about a selection, but State Blue has run well at Gr 1 level over 1200m and is selected to win ahead of her stable companions My Kazzie and Captain’s Cove, in what could be a memorable race for the Justin Snaith camp. The best of the rest may be Roses For Lizzy, Shahrezade, and Perestroika.
