Dancewiththedevil
The smaller the field, the bigger the upset, so the saying goes. Upsets in small fields more often than not are due to a slow or false pace. With just eight runners, could the Gr1 Horse Chestnut fall victim to a tactical rather than true-run contest?
St John Gray, who trains last year’s winner Dancewiththedevil, must be well aware that his champion mare needs a strong pace to be able to show her best. Which is no doubt why he has also entered Super Trouper, a capable miler, but on ratings well below the rest of the runners in the field. He has no chance of winning, and his role must be that of a pacemaker. That said, Super Trouper does have above average ability, so when he goes to the front the others cannot let him go – then he’d simply run away with the race.
In a nutshell, jockey Robbie Fradd has a responsible task aboard Super Trouper to get the pace just right. Everything depends on him.
Dancewiththedevil should be the one to beat if she can reproduce her best form. She won the Summer Cup in great style last November, then had a break until February. Her return was in the Hawaii Stakes over 1400m, where she was a bit slow away and couldn’t quite make up enough ground to threaten. That said, she did run to a respectable rating, and she’s bound to be fully race-ready now. Let’s hope her stable companion gives her the pace she needs.
Kavanagh
Kavanagh has won three of his four starts over 1400m
The Hawaii Stakes was won by Kavanagh, who is better than ever since gelding, and recorded what looks to have been a career-best rating in what was a true run 1400m race. The son of Tiger Ridge is sure to give a good account himself here, although he still has to show that a true run mile is within his capabilities. If he gets the trip, Dancewiththedevil will need to be at her very peak to come and catch him from behind. That should be a spectacle!
Solo Traveller & Rudra
Kavanagh has two stable companions in the race. The game Rudra hasn’t raced since a third in the Summer Cup last November, when he showed some of his old sparkle again. Rudra is a 7yo now, and has plummeted in the Merit ratings – not that this will be of much use to him here, as the race is run on level terms. If the race is run as it should be, he’ll probably be found wanting in the closing stages.
The third stable mate is Gr1 Cape and Natal Guineas winner Solo Traveller, who joined the De Kock stable following the winter season. He had a break from July to January, and has had two run over 1400m since then. The most recent of those was an unplaced run in the Hawaii Stakes, when he was slow away and couldn’t quite make up the ground. His run was a good one, though, as he was beaten less than four lengths by Kavanagh, but carrying 4kg more than the winner. They have the same weight here, so he’s certainly in with a chance to beat Kavanagh – especially since the distance is no problem for him. Waichong Marwing rode him the last two times, and is again in the saddle here. Let’s hope they break on terms this time.
Bravura
Bravura
Highest rating in the field belongs to Bravura, who just got pipped in the J&B Met by Igugu last January. The big question is whether he has acclimatised in the month he has been in Gauteng. Bravura is a notoriously laid-back worker at home and he’s been his same old-self up north, so about his match fitness only the race will tell!
Bravura’s racing form has been impeccable this term, with a win in the Green Point Stakes, and being right there where it mattered in the Queen’s Plate and J&B Met. A lucky horse he hasn’t been. The distance of the Horse Chestnut stakes will suit him, assuming that there is a good pace. He ought to go close.
Pierre Jourdan
Pierre Jourdan
Following his good second to Igugu in last year July, Pierre Jourdan had a break until September, when he won a condition race at short odds. He followed up two months later with a win in the November Handicap. The Summer Cup was next, but best forgotten, as Pierre Jourdan wasn’t himself, finishing well back. His recent form has been solid, with a two length third to Kavanagh in the Hawaii Stakes last time out. He’s 2.5kg better off here with his conqueror, suggesting that he too should take a hand in the finish.
Buy And Sell
Piere Strydom gets the ride on Buy And Sell, a multiple Gr1 winner, who likes to race handy. He’s an eight year old now, has had his niggles, and probably no longer the force he once was. It would come as a surprise to see him feature in a true run contest.
About the pace
In the end it all will be up to Robbie Fradd. If he gets the pace just right on what we assume will be the pace setter, we should be in for a great finish. You can imagine it: Dancewiththedevil flying home to catch those in front of her in the final stages – Bravura, Pierre Jourdan, Kavanagh, Solo Traveller. We pick her to complete the Horse Chestnut double – the champion in the champion’s race. Solo Traveller may provide the value for the exacta, but it’s going to be close!
