Suited. St John Gray’s smart Australian bred 4yo Adams Rock could follow up on his last win when he goes to post at the Vaal on Tuesday
The major talking point on the horizon this week will be the abolition of couplings in the Pick 6 bet. Punters are naturally competitive by nature, and the lure of the challenge of pitting one’s wits against the odds of winning big money, will hopefully have the effect of revitalising the anchor exotic and boosting pools accordingly.
The platform for the bet relaunch is a healthy one, and a jam packed week lies ahead, with bumper fields the order of the day.
Quality Street
While a good quality 1400m MR 94 Handicap at Tuesday’s Vaal outside meeting is our point of focus, there will be plenty to test new interest in the Pick 6, and monitoring the pools and dividends could be an eyeopener. TAB have made a policy decision to abolish the coupling safety net in the Pick 6 and this will take effect from Monday’s Arlington meeting. This is a move that is no doubt intended to give the jaded product a much needed shot in the arm.
It has been some twenty years since the Natal Tote reduced the Pick Six betting unit from 50 cents to 10 cents, because of a similar step taken earlier in the Cape, and which resulted in pool-increases of up to 50%. The second 10-cent Pick Six meeting benefitted coincidentally from a double carryover, which resulted in the pool soaring to a whopping R3.4 million at the time!
Buying Power
A simple consideration of present day buying power will show that we definitely have not gone forward in the last decade or two. There is just so much more distractive competition in this disposable world. Consider Cellphones, Casinos, the Lottery and international sports betting opportunities, to name but a few.
Then throw in the industry created competition of the introduction of fractional betting some years ago, combined with the economic reality of a shift in power to a handful of yards training the bulk of horses in centres like Kimberley and Port Elizabeth, with meetings consequently dominated by large coupling.
These have had the effect of simplifying (really?) and reducing the magnetic attraction of the big payouts of bygone days. But let’s hope that the move away from couplings will work.
Australian Bred
The twelve strong field in the MR 94 Handicap lies slap bang in the middle of the Vaal Tuesday exotic and punters may be able to get away with two or three horses and rather opt to keep their bullets for other legs, where they may be needed. A must include is St John Gray’s Adams Rock, a smart Australian bred son of Fastnet Rock, who can follow up on his last win over the course and distance.
The 4yo has won 3 of his 12 starts and bounded away over the same trip last time to beat Brother In Arms going away by 4 lengths. He has to give weight to Flag Of France and Right To Tango, whom he beat easily there, but strikes us as an improving sort, who will beat those two again. Robbie Fradd rides him again in the Michael Leaf silks.
Key To Success
The major opposition could well be provided by Piere Strydom, who rides the talented National Key for Brian Wiid. National Key is still a colt, and has a very similar formline and statistical profile to his adversary. A course and distance winner of 3 of his 13 starts, he showed plenty of pace last time, when going down two lengths to the smart Rambo, after looking a likely winner late.
Strydom sticks with the 4yo, who seldom runs a bad race. Sherman Brown rides the Spectrum gelding Captain Haddock for trainer Ormond Ferraris. He has been rested just over two months and will not be far off the action, if not lacking fitness.
On The Deck
Another runner who must have some claim is the Lance Wiid trained Ahoy Captain. The 8yo is a seasoned 7 time winner, who loves the course and distance. His pilot Gavin Lerena has only ridden one winner so far this season, and will be very keen to get back amongst the winners after an extended quiet phase.
Sean Tarry’s Troubled Waters returns from a close on seven month break and is well held by Ahoy Captain on his last run. He should need the outing, and will have a tough task in any event.
The Romeo Francis trained Flag Of France improved over the course and distance at his last start, when staying on readily, despite being bumped at the 400m marker. He is a healthy 4kgs better off with Adams Rock, but needs to prove that the run was not a flash in the pan.
Better Than That
Right To Tango is a horse that just seems so much better than a two time winner. Lucky Houdalakis’ gelding is 5kgs better off with Adams Rock, who beat him six lengths over the course and distance previously. Right To Tango suffered some interference there, and is a horse that should enjoy a quick lead over this track.
Mike Azzie’s Almushtarak gelding Decameron switches from the sand, but is a surface course and distance winner who comes in with a light weight. He will contribute to the surplus of pace in the race, and could be a quartet danger if allowed to run freely.
Big Four
All told, the top four rated runners look likely to fight this out. There is plenty of pace in the race,and once again the tactical genius of horsemen like Robbie Fradd and Piere Strydom will be beneficial in our trenches. Adams Rock is the narrow choice, to beat National Key and Right To Tango.
