Buyer’s Dilemmas: Is The First Crop Worth The Gamble?

First-season sires were all the rage at the Magic Millions sale in Australia last week, with buyers bidding as if the results were known. Yearlings by Gr1 Golden Slipper winner Sepoy especially drew attention, twice breaking the Australian record for a first-season sire top price.

That happened on Day One of the sale with A$850k, and later with the sale’s overall top price of A$1.2 million on the closing day.

Sepoy is a son of successful sire-of-sires Elusive Quality, and out of a mare by Danehill. The credentials are there, for sure, but what just caused the buyers to run amok this way is hard to tell – the Golden Slipper perhaps, or the rich sale races linked to the sale. Then there were yearlings by Smart Missile, a Gr2 sprinter by Danehill stallion Fastnet Rock, where prices went as high as A$700k.

First season sires represent the ultimate gamble. Nothing is known about their ability to produce runners. Stronger, still, most of them will have been written off by the time their third crop have completed their first season. On the other hand, yearlings by first season sires usually aren’t priced out of reach – the Australian example quoted earlier is exception rather than rule.

So the question for buyers must be ‘is the first crop worth the gamble?’
Let’s see what history tells us.

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Sires with Gr1 winners in their first crop

Var is top of the pops

First, let’s look at excellence. That is probably best defined by the ability to sire Gr1 winners.

Between 1982 and 2011, a thirty-year period, there were forty stallions who between them sired a total of fifty Gr1 winners in their very first crop. There were outstanding champions among them, most notably Elliodor’s Model Man, Jet Master’s Pocket Power, Camden Park’s Jay Peg, Var’s Val de Ra. Six stallions had two individual Gr1 winners first time round, and one had four: that was Jet Master.

The forty sires with Gr1 winners came from a total pool of 416 stallions who went to stud in that 30 year period – forty in 416 is just about 10%. One in ten.

Of course not all fifty individual Gr1 winners were bought at auction. Some were simply not offered at auction (such as Model Man), others went through the ring without getting sold (Val de Ra was one of those). In all, nineteen of the fifty Gr1 winners did not change hands at auction. Of the remaining 31, there were eighteen whose sale prices were less than R100k. That leaves a baker’s dozen of more expensive yearlings, but even there the top price of R600k for Silvano’s King’s Gambit was less than twice the sale average at Nationals that year.

The criteria for excellence can be loosened by widening the net to include all Graded stakes winner (Gr1/2/3) instead of only those hard-to-achieve Gr1 winners. The total number of successful stallions goes up to 94 (which out of 416 represents 23%), who between them have 163 individual Graded stakes winners. About two-thirds (108) of these found a new owner in the sale ring, seventy of them at under R100k. The latter figure is distorted, with prices twenty and thirty years ago being much lower than today. But still.

Of these, the sires with more than three individual first-crop Graded winners are Badger Land (4), Western Winter (4), Jet Master (12) and Var (4).

ns – National Sale; gw – original Cape January sale; nt – KZN sale; ty – National 2yo sale;
tt – original Ready to Run Sale; bk1 – Cape Premier Yearling Sale; bk2 – Cape Yearling Sale;
vint – Vintage Sale; nms – KZN mare & weanling sale; hb – Highveld Breeders sale;
crtr – Cape Ready to Run sale; crs – Cape Regional Yearling sale

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How to pick the right first-crop stallion

South Africa has regularly had imported stallions, with an established record abroad before their arrival. There are clues there, certainly, but it doesn’t always work out.

There have been wildly successful ones, such as champion sires Badger Land and Silvano, who at first were shuttle stallions, then became permanent residents for one reason or another. Then there was Muhtafal, and later Tiger Ridge and Trippi – all three making their mark.

On the flipside were Wolfhound, Spectrum, Mr Justice, Fluorescent Light, Plugged Nickle, Red Ryder, and a good few others who in the grand scheme of things can’t be called successful despite having had some Gr1 success abroad before their arrival here.

Taking a view on the proper new first-crop stallions is more difficult. Some say performance and pedigree are both of utmost importance. Others go for for performance only, and take less notice of male lines, or the female line’s successes.

Here are some of the successful SA sires of recent times, several of them real mystery packages.

Jet Master – topclass race horse from sprints to a mile (rated about 125), by Northern Dancer stallion Rakeen from a mare by Rollins, from a moderate female line; his Rakeen was moderately successful, especially when exported to the US after his local start, and when returned afterwards.

Western Winter – G1/G2 placed 5-time winner, over 6f-7f in USA, by Gone West out of a mare by Vice Regent (Northern Dancer), from an unspectacular US female line.

Fort Wood – French Gr1 winner over 2000m (rated 117), by Sadler’s Wells (Northern Dancer) out of Fall Aspen (by Pretense), a serious blue hen producer, notably as grandam of Dubai Millennium (rated 140; sire of Dubawi).

Silvano – international Gr1 winner up to 2200m (rated 126), by German champion sire Lomitas (Niniski by Nijinsky – Northern Dancer), from a mare by Beau’s Eagle and with an American pedigree background.

Var – French Gr1 sprinter (rated 124), by Forest Wildcat (Storm Cat by Storm Bird – Northern Dancer) out of a mare by Zilzal (Nureyev), from an unspectacular US female line.

Captain Al – Gr1 winning miler (rated 112), by Al Mufti (Roberto; rated 112) out of Off To War (Complete Warrior by Dewan), who after Captain Al’s entry to stud became dam and grandam of other Gr1 winners; the female line is unspectacular South African.

Not one of these, at the time of their first crops, was seriously expected to make it to the top of the tree as a stallion.

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Sires with Gr1 winners in their second crop

Gr1 winner from Jet Master’s second crop, River Jetez, has her first yearling at this year’s sale

Sometimes, by the time a new stallion’s second crop goes under the hammer, there’s evidence from his first-crop 2yo runners. This is especially true for sales later in the year.

Buyers at early sales, such as the January Cape Premier Sale, are as much in the dark about second crop sires as about first crop stallions. Which is why we repeat the exercise above, this time for second crop offspring.

The total pool remains the same (416 stallions with runners), but the number of stallions with second crop Gr1 winners is less at 37 (some 9%), who between them sired 46 individual Gr1 winners. Those with more than two are Fort Wood (3), Western Winter (3), Jet Master (4).

Thirty-one of the 46 individual winners found their destiny in the sale-ring, including Jet Master’s River Jetez (full sister to the previous year’s Pocket Power) and Mythical Flight. Seventeen of them could be had for less than R100k. There were big prices for Jet Master’s progeny, possible on the strength of what was known of his first crop.

The other fifteen non-sale yearlings included champions Horse Chestnut (by Fort Wood), Yard-Arm (Western Winter), Dancewiththedevil (Modus Vivendi), Beach Beauty (Dynasty).

Widening the net to all second crop Graded stakes winners throws up 97 stallions with Graded winners, just about the same as found with sires of first-crop Graded winners. Between them they sired 140 individual Graded winners, some way down from the 163 first-crop equivalent. Best represented are Rakeen (4, including Jet Master), Fort Wood (5 including Horse Chestnut), Jallad (4 including Free My Heart), Western Winter (5 including Yard-Arm), Count duBois (5 including Biarritz), Jet Master (5 including Mythical Flight & River Jetez).

In summary, there are great similarities between first and second crop successes. The odd sires out may have been Rakeen and Count duBois – after a slow first-crop start, for both their subsequent career has been somewhat of a rollercoaster.

On the whole we see the best sires finding their rightful place – but the numbers are small, and the chance to make a successful buy in the ring equally so, although not so small as to be impossible. There is hope!

ns – National Sale; gw – original Cape January sale; nt – KZN sale; ty – National 2yo sale;
tt – original Ready to Run Sale; bk1 – Cape Premier Yearling Sale; bk2 – Cape Yearling Sale;
vint – Vintage Sale; nms – KZN mare & weanling sale; hb – Highveld Breeders sale;
crtr – Cape Ready to Run sale; crs – Cape Regional Yearling sale

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How to pick the right first-crop offspring

If you managed to isolate a first-crop stallion to follow, on whatever basis, the next step is to find that big first-crop runner.

For offspring from sires with a record abroad, there is pedigree information which might help.
For others, a good point often is to see what has worked well with the dam’s family, and whether the new stallion relates to the sires of the family’s best runners.

At the Cape Premier Sale there are eight first-crop stallions. Taken by number of offspring offered they are Gimmethegreenlight (15), Philanthropist (13), Bold Silvano (5), Pathfork (5), Gitano Hernando (2), and with one apiece Bahamian Bounty, Curved Ball and Main Aim.
Let’s see.

Gimmethegreenlight

Gimmethegreenlight – a top class racehorse

Gr1 Queen’s Plate (wfa) winner as a 3yo, rated 117. By More Than Ready (Southern Halo), out of a Canny Lad mare with a solid Australian pedigree background, with three lines of Star Kingdom close-up. Gimmethegreenlight is half brother to an Australian Gr1 winner by Mossman (Success Express).

More Than Ready’s best son at stud is Sebring, champion 2yo colt and now producer of Gr1 winners in Australia.

Gimmethegreenlight’s female line background suggests (according to Breeder’s Handbook) a possible suitability to background lines of Hyperion and closer up Blushing Groom (as in Jallad, Rainbow Quest (Saumarez, Spectrum)), Khaled in Swaps (Green Desert, Change Water/Fort Wood), in Mill Reef (Shirley Heights). Suitable female line descendants from Pretty Polly (Preamble, Tara’s Halls), Soho Secret. There’s more.

A quick overview of the Gimmethegreenlight yearlings on offer.
#22 stakes placed dam by Captain Al from Gr1 Argentine female line
#41 dam half sister by Dominion Royale to Viva (National Assembly; dam of leading 3yo Cold As Ice) and Cartel (Northern Guest)
#50 NZ-bred dam by Maroof (Danzig) produced Gr1 placed SW Las Ramblas by Toreador (Danehill)
#51 dam is Gr1 Silver Arc, who is by Silvino (Our Native) out of mare by Mullineaux (Hail to Reason)
#60 dam is Rakeen mare from female line of Classic Flag and Omaha Beach (both Allied Flag); third dam is by St Cuthbert (Pretty Polly line)
#71 dam is stakes placed Caesour mare, and Oaks-winning grandam is by Great Brother, whose dam and sire are Pretty Polly descendants
#88 Australian dam is by Val Royal out of mare by Nassipour (Blushing Groom)
#112 stakes winning dam by Jet Master from an Al Mufti mare
#115 dam by Jet Master, and full sister to Gr1 Love Is In The Air; same family as #71, but without Great Brother
#121 Irish dam, from well performed female line of Gr1 All Is Secret et al, is by Mujadil (Storm Bird)
#143 dam is 3-part sister to champion Yard-Arm (both by Western Winter)
#146 Canadian dam, from black type family, is by Deputy Minister
#178 Argentine dam, by Candy Stripes (Blushing Groom), is half sister to dam of Gr1 Normanz
#181 dam by Tara’s Halls and from Drohsky female line, on a background of Hyperion (11 in dam, 17 lines in yearling)
#197 dam by West Man (Gone West)

Given the criteria stated earlier, on paper the ones with appeal are #181, #178, #71, #88.

Philanthropist

Philanthropist – magnificent specimen

Gr3 winner by Kris S. (Roberto), out of G2 placed full sister to G1 winner Educated Risk, the pair half sisters to G1 Inside Information, a G1 producer. This is a strong family, going to 4th dam Grey Flight, ancestress of a host of G1 winners and sires includingWhat A Pleasure, Bold Lad, Successor, and South Africa’s Quick Turnover & National Assembly.

Philanthropist is a leading sire in Canada, his best runner probably G1 winning sprinter Phil’s Dream. Interesting to note that the latter’s dam is by Emperor Jones (a son of Danzig, and a full brother to SA sire Qui Danzig), while his third dam is a half sister to the dam of SA sire Right Approach.

Philanthropist’s third dam is a full sister to the grandam of SA sire National Assembly (Danzig), and there’s a chance that the two will show similar aptitudes when it comes to matings, and that National Assembly lines could go well ith Philanthropist.

Breeder’s Handbook suggest that suitable lines for Philanthropist could include decendants of La Troienne (in multiples), which are widespread but notable through Buckpasser in Al Mufti (Captain Al), Norhtern Guest, National Assembly, Quick Turnover. The latter two also give bottom-female line links with Philanthropist, giving additional interest.

National Assembly and his sire Danzig are well represented in the dams of the Philanthropist yearlings at this sale.

#39 half brother to three Gr3 winners out of Scented Samantha, by National Assembly
#40 half brother to a winner out of stakes winner School Assembly, by National Assembly
#58 colt out of Gr2 winner Staet Factor, by National Assembly.

#144 US-bred dam is by Danzig out of Pretty Polly stakes winner and Epsom Oaks runner up Pricket (half sister to Oaks winner Diminuendo), from a strong Gr1 female line.

#186 Australian dam is by Danehill (Danzig), from a Gr1 staying family (known in SA through Casey Tibbs and Mosszao).

The female line of Philanthropist is also the one of Native Dancer (grandsire of Mr Prospector). There’s a heap of this in #184, whose Irish dam is by Hawk Wing (Woodman) and inbred 3×2 to Mr Prospector, to which Philanthropist adds another (3x4x3). Woodman’s dam is inbred to La Troienne, through Buckpasser and the bottom-line. All very interesting.

Pathfork

Pathfork, highest rated 2yo in Ireland

Unbeaten in three starts, Pathfork ranked in joint-fifth place on Timeform’s listing of 2yo’s, headed that year by Frankel. Pathfork rated 119p, with high expectation for him as a 3yo. Those didn’t materialise, for a variety of reasons.

He was second favourite for the 2000 Guineas behind Frankel, ran no sort of race, and wasn’t seen out again that year.

Pathfork is a son of US champion sire Distorted Humor, his dam is by Sadler’s Wells and hails from a highclass female line which also produced leading SA sire & broodmare sire Northern Guest.

Breeder’s Handbook notes suitable lines for Pathfork those from his own female line, of his damsire Sadler’s Wells, as well as La Troienne (notably Buckpasser), and Trippi (who resembles Distorted Humor in make-up). Breeder’s Handbook had noted descendants of Diorissimo/Scented Royal when Trippi first went to stud, and some good winners came from that.

Diorissimo is from the same female line as Distorted Humor (going to the mare Pandora) and there might be an affinity through Pathfork as well. That draws serious attention to #140, a colt out of Fragrant Filly. The mare is a daughter of Scented Royal, and is dam of a 5-time winner by Trippi.

There are four other Pathfork yearlings. The dam of #110 is by Kabool out of a Sadler’s Wells mare, giving 3×3 inbreeding to the latter in the filly on offer. Then there’s US-bred Gr3 winning mare Arch Mistress, who is dam of a Gr2 placed winner. The next dam is a US stakes winner by Black Tie Affair (who has a double La Troienne).

That leaves #19, first foal of a 4-time winning Jet Master mare, and #130 a colt whose dam is 3-part sister to Gr1 winner & sire Elusive Fort.

Bold Silvano

Bold Silvano – Gr1 winner up to 2200m

Gr1 winner up to 2200m, rated 119. He’s by champion sire Silvano out of a stakes placed Al Mufti mare, with a South African female line background. Breeder’s Handbook suggests a possible affinity with the female line of Missy Baba, which leads to AP Indy and in South Africa to Sportsworld, Al Mufti, Captain Al.

Bold Silvano has a handful yearlings at this sale. The dam of #72 is by Western Winter out of a Del Sarto mare. #95 is out of a Gr3 placed mare by Count duBois (Zafonic by Gone West). #161 comes from the female line of sire Brer Rabbit, with the yearling’s dam a 4-time winning mare by Lecture (Seeking The Gold). The dam of #191 is a half sister by Var to Viva, the dam of Cold As Ice.

Curved Ball

Gr2 winning miler (rated 107) by Australian champion sire Fastnet Rock (Danehill).
He has a single representative, the first foal of a 3-time winning Jet Master mare, who is half sister to Gr2 winner Tellina, from a black type English female line.

Main Aim

Gr1 placed Gr2 winner over 1200-1400m in UK (rated 123), by European champion sprinter Oasis Dream (Green Desert by Danzig).
Just one yearling on offer here. #96 is a colt out of National Assembly (Danzig) mare Antonia’s Law, who is dam of 2 stakes horses, and herself full sister to Gr1 Trust Antonia and half sister to Gr1 Gold Flier and Gr1 Successful Bidder.

Gitano Hernando

Gitano Hernando – Gr1 winner on turf and dirt

Gr1 winner in USA (dirt) and Singapore (turf) up to 2000m (rated 124), by Hernando (Niniski) out a mare by Perugino (half brother by Danzig to Sadler’s Wells). His third dam is Gr1 winner Mrs McArdy.

He has two yearlings here. #66 is a filly out of a UK-bred Gone West mare, the next dam a US G2 winner by by Be My Guest. #83 is a half sister to Gr3 winner Hot Affair (Jay Peg), out of a mare by Captain Al. The grandam is full sister to Gr1 winner La Fabulous.

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