The Mike De Kock-trained jet Avenger could prove the value
The very idea that five legs of the Pick 6 at the Vaal on Tuesday are handicaps should be a natural red flag for punters. After all, the broad aim of handicapping is to get the field to finish in a dead heat. So playing professor and going narrow in certain legs could well be inviting disaster.
But that is half the fun of it.
The term handicap race originated in the late 18th century, based on the 17th-century trading game hand-in-cap, that involved trading possessions and an umpire deciding the difference in value.
Money was put in a cap for the traders to put their hands in, to simultaneously draw them out full or empty to indicate agreement or disagreement on the affair.
In the 19th century, the term handicap was first used to describe the weight placed on the stronger horses to even up the race. It has fascinated us ever since and is one of the most hotly debated topics whenever racing folk gather.
Science
The very nature of midweek racing is such that modest and middle of the road handicaps and maiden races tend to dominate the programme.
In the less than exact science of structuring a racecard, cognisance is taken of many dynamics, which include practicalities such as minimising the movement of the starting stalls, as well as catering to the aims of optimising betting turnover.
In an ideal world, one will thus experience race order following similar distances as movement of the starting stalls creates a potential for wear and tear and opportunities for something to go wrong.
Taking account of betting turnover trends and customer behaviour, the earlier races also tend to be maidens, with Phumelela often opting to incorporate at least one such maiden event in the Pick 6.
No Nets
Eurakilon has weight to carry but is consistent
So Tuesday’s situation is nothing unusual, and this, combined with the removal of the safety net of the couplings, makes the Pick 6 a very attractive, but extremely difficult bet to win.
That is shown in the telephone number dividends of late.
While a trappy maiden race opens the exotic in the fourth race, one of the very open handicaps on Tuesday’s card is the fifth race, an MR 80 Handicap run over a mile.
Looking beyond the obvious of Captain Aldo and Eurakilon, there may be some value in Mike De Kock’s 4yo Jet Avenger who will strip fit after running a fair race over the course and distance a week ago.
He was baulked and made a respiratory noise (a worry!) when not showing and running 3,55 lengths behind surprise winner Indian Giant there.
That one meets him again but at 2,5kgs worse terms which could count in favour of Jet Avenger.
While still only a one-time winner and a fellow that on paper has not improved a major deal in the six months since shedding his maiden, he has not been that far off to suggest he couldn’t pop up.
Strong Finish
St John Gray’s Captain Aldo ran on strongly and finished only a quarter length behind Indian Giant in the same race.
He is a kilo better off with the winner and is a lightly raced progressive looking sort who hails from a family of winners.
Ormond Ferraris’ Eurakilon has won 3 of his 8 starts and drops in class after going third to Norgay last time at Turffontein, when he moved up menacingly late, and just failed to kick.
He is a course and distance winner, but effectively carries the top weight.
Pudding
Ryan Munger takes some weight off Rocco’s Luck
Topweighted Rocco’s Luck gets some relief courtesy of Ryan Munger’s 2,5kg claim.
The Australian-bred son of Royal Academy has shown signs of breathing problems and has tended to lack clout late after losing ground in his recent starts.
Piere Strydom and Lucky Houdalakis were on the mark with a feature win at the Vaal last Saturday and the champion jockey dons the same Sarasota silks to partner the former Dean Kannemeyer-trained Noble Star.
He looks well held by Eurakilon on his last outing, but it makes no sense to leave Strydom out of any exotic calculations.
Sean Tarry’s Reign Victorious has hit his best form again this season and won his penultimate start in a lower -class handicap in smart style.
He ran on well for fourth and 2,75 lengths behind Brass Verdict last time and should be considered for larger perms.
Enigmatic
John Vos’ Indian Giant loves the Vaal but tends toward s inconsistency.
He beat Captain Aldo narrowly last time and with a kilo to find, may battle to repeat that.
Gunter Wrogemann rides the snow white Daylami gelding Bah, who finished only 2 lengths behind Indian Giant last time.
Bah is 2kgs better off with the winner but is a rather enigmatic character, who Piere Strydom could probably have had the choice of riding.
Denial
Another value prospect could well be Captain Aldo’s stablemate Egyptian, who carries only 52kgs.
The 7yo son of Sarge tops our ratings, despite two dismal showings at his last two outings when pulling up lame.
The five time winner registered his last win over Tuesday’s course and distance and would only need to run to his highest rating, to have a shout.
