Hat Trick. Tudor Star is well drawn and goes for three in a row when she contests the Breeders Guineas Plate at Arlington on Friday
The R75 000 Listed Breeders Guineas Plate heads the Arlington Friday programme and with eleven of the fifteen runners only having won one race, the event looks tailor-made for an upset result.
The Eastern Cape results were a touch topsy turvy this past Monday after the rain, and it would not surprise us to see the trend of rough results continuing at Arlington on Friday.
Standout
The absence of a genuine standout in this race makes it a tough puzzle to unravel. The conditions of this race for 3yo fillies are that one time winners and raced maidens carry a base weight of 52kgs, with a penalty of 2kgs for each subsequent win up to a maximum of 58 kgs. That leaves us, sensibly we believe, scratching around somewhere at the top of the handicap.
And a warning about the Aloe Handicap form that keeps rearing its head. That race produced a blanket finish, with some bumping and scrimmaging in the final stages. The top eight finishers were within 1,40 lengths of each other. Seven of them that participated there, run here.Beware!
Smith Trio
Gavin Smith’s three way coupling is probably as good a place as any to start. The Smith coupling is headed by the Eastern Cape champion juvenile Deepo, who is one of only two three time winners in the race. The daughter of Albert Hall showed a heartening return to form last time when running into trouble before flying late for a short head beating by Tudor Star in the Aloe Handicap.
Deepo meets that one on 3,5 kgs better terms here, which should be a winning turnaround, were it not for the balancing effect of the draw. Tara Laing’s smart Tudor Star has drawn against the paint, while Deepo is wide out in that unlucky 13 box. That doesn’t leave too much to split them.
Besides Deepo, Gavin Smith also sends out recent maiden winners, Party Rocker and Go Googol. Party Rocker is well drawn and won smartly at her eleventh attempt last time. Apprentice Teague Gould who rode her there, partners her again. She is very nicely bred and could well still be improving after relocating from KZN late last year.
Search Engine
Go Googol won her maiden at her seventh try last time. That was over 2000m, and if this isn’t too short, she could have a place chance carrying only 50kgs courtesy of her claiming apprentice. Steven Janse Van Rensburg ‘s Guineas Plate winner Break Of Dawn is a very interesting runner. The daughter of Miesque’s Approval has won 2 from 8 and is a course and distance winner.
She drew shockingly when finishing way down field in the Lady’s Bracelet, and then got going too late in the Aloe Handicap, when just 0, 65 lengths back in that blanket finish. Break Of Dawn must go into all permutations.
Sham Show
The bang in form Dorrie Sham yard send out a coupling of Oh So Easy, Dreamwalker and Kiss From A Rose. Oh So Easy has won 2 from 17 and after winning two in a row, appears to have lost her form after travelling North for an Emerald Cup day sand feature. She enjoys a 3 kg turnaround with Tudor Star on the Aloe Handicap form, but we have our doubts about that race.
There are not many Deep Sleep progeny racing, and one of the better ones is Dreamwalker. After winning her maiden at her fourteenth start, she made the pace in the Aloe Handicap and stayed on well for a long priced third and only 0,15 lengths off Tudor Star.
Kiss From A Rose was also amongst the fun in the Aloe Handicap and showed good pace at her previous start when a nice third to Aspen Angle in a Novice Plate over the Fairview 1200m. She is very average and her draw of 14 will not help her cause.
Combination
The Justin Snaith and Team Valor International combination are always a serious factor and while Valor Red’s formline looks rather ordinary, it will be prudent to include her on her PE debut. The beautifully bred daughter of Western Winter certainly has the blood.
Her smashingly handsome full brother Brutal Force was bought by Markus Jooste for R1 500 000 at the Cape Premier Yearling Sale at the end of last month. And Valor Red has a big family name to uphold. She has only had six runs and won her maiden early enough at her third start.
Her last run, when finishing four lengths off La Tigresse in an MR 70 Handicap over 1200m at Kenilworth was a fair effort, and would be good enough to give her a chance here.
Bremner Bunch
Yvette Bremner sends out a three way coupling of Shazza, Scented Ash and the recent maiden winner, Olympic Victory. Scented Ash must be regarded the stable elect based on the riding arrangements, and this daughter of Ashaawes meets Tudor Star on a half kilo better terms for a 0, 6 length beating last time over the course and distance.
Scented Ash registered her maiden win over the course and distance, but appears a touch inconsistent and can only have an outside chance at best froma nice draw.
Olympic Victory has drawn widest of all and this post maiden test could be a bit too much for the daughter of Victory Moon at this stage. She took 13 runs to win her maiden, and is definitely no star. The third of the Bremner trio is Shaza, who will be ridden by Warren Kennedy.
The daughter of National Emblem has won once from her 11 starts, and showed a flicker of enthusiasm last time when running on behind Wiqaaya in a Graduation Plate for a fair fourth.
Grant Paddock’s Australian Ilha Da Rock is beautifully bred, but her recent form inspires no confidence at all. Alan Greeff’s coupling of Quinan and Between The Covers look likely optimist exotic inclusions. The grey Quinan took 12 runs to shed her maiden and comes off that win straight into a bad draw here against better sorts. Between The Covers has only 1 win and 1 place from her 12 starts and has shown nothing recently.
Take A Break
While we have every respect for the well drawn Tudor Star and the talented Deepo, we like the prospects of the value horse Break Of Dawn, who could come back to form and win this at any price. Valor Red is also quite classy and could make an impact on her Eastern Cape debut. Beyond them, it is a lucky dip of note.
