New Kid. Mr Premier needs to confirm last win was no fluke
Sand specialist Mr Tobin suffered an unlikely defeat at his last start after a glorious purple patch. He should set the record straight when he clashes with his countryman Mr Premier in the Rugby 5 Pinnacle Stakes to be run over 1450m at the Vaal on Thursday.
The Buenos Aires-based Haras Firmamento bred both these sons of American-bred Mr Prospector stallion Numerous, and they stand out in what should be an intriguing tactical contest, despite the small field of only eight carded runners.
Experience
Their last clash was over a mile and they drop down in distance here. Their paths to the clash that saw Mr Tobin dethroned by the new sand kid-on-the-block, were very different, and we are siding with the proven sand experience of the Tarry runner.
Mr Tobin started a 1-5 favourite when beaten by Mr Premier on 7 June. Piere Strydom rode him that afternoon and came in for some rather misguided criticicm for allegedly displaying too much confidence and leaving him with too much to do as Nuresh Juglall opportunistically skipped away on Mr Premier.
That was an early race on an afternoon that was to show that the track was running very quick and that horses were not making up ground and being caught flat-footed. Sean Tarry switches Strydom to Follow The Piper and is opting for Gavin Lerena on Thursday. The promising rider has won twice on Mr Tobin, so knows him well.
Alive
Mr Premier has revitalised a career that was headed absolutely nowhere since trying the sand and he won his second start last time in convincing style. His rider did take advantage of the prevailing conditions and he now has to carry 1,5kgs more, but he looks like a fellow who has not won his last race here. The shorter distance may also favour his running style over that of the more relaxed Mr Tobin.
The only filly in the race, and possibly the key to the outcome of the tactical battle, is Mr Tobin’s stablemate Follow The Piper, who appears to be regaining her form of late 2011 very quickly.
The daughter of Tiger Ridge has enough pace to get to the front and make things hot, which will play into her stablemate’s hands. That is not to say that she is an expendable no-hoper.
Piere Strydom rides her for the third time, which in itself is a sign of confidence and a positive indicator. She ran a solid second and 2,25 lengths off Prime Mover in a Vaal 1200m on the sand last time. That was a commendable effort as she stumbled twice during the running and yet still managed to finish with respectability.She had the likes of The Plunderer and Secret Life well beaten in that contest, and if we assume that her stumbling issues have been sorted out, she could go very close.
Say Something
Steve Kenny’s Sayadaw is the most accomplished performer in the race, having won nine races to date.While he has not seen the winner’s enclosure since January 2011, his last run indicated a flicker of hope when staying on for third 2,75 lengths behind Mr Premier and Mr Tobin. He meets the latter on the same terms again, but Mr Premier carries 1,5kgs more, and that could level the playing fields somewhat.
Strike Master was withdrawn from his last engagement three weeks ago as he was suffering from a virus. This Brazillian-bred son of Gilded Time likes to run handy, but has created problems for himself by being slow away at his last few starts. He has won over the course and distance, but looks held. He will also need to sow his well-being and that he is suffering from no after effects of the virus.
The Lecture gelding Sermon is no slouch and something of a sand specialist. He has won five of his 28 starts,and interestingly all those wins were achieved in the hands of master pilot Piere Strydom. His last victory was an impressive one by 3 lengths but he steps up in class here and should find the likes of Mr Tobin and Mr Premier too hot to handle.
Flowers
The six year old former Derby winner Boquet-Garni has the ability to win this on his best day, but he is inconsistency personified. He would be a surprise winner, but warrants a place consideration.
He was giving away six kgs when beaten four lengths by Mr Premier three weeks ago in a mile Pinnacle Stakes , and is now closer to Kom Naidoo’s gelding with only a 4,5kg weight difference. e. Mr Tobin also has him beaten as they meet on the same terms as they did that day. That should not help his cause, and he appears a troubled fellow and has not won in ten months.
Brett Webber’s Tilman has an interesting and quite frustrating formline. The son of Windrush cracked his maiden by eleven lengths at his first try on sand over the course and distance , but has never earned another cheque in his eight other career runs.
His last run was an improved showing when he ran on when it was all over to finish fifth and 4,50 lengths off the talented Beacon Flare in an MR 90 Handicap on today’s course and distance.He may improve for a place, but looks unlikely to topple the more seasoned professionals.
Logic
We are going to give Mr Tobin the thumbs-up to restore himself as the unnoficial king of the sand. Everything points in that direction. He is fit, has a good draw at 1 and won’t let his opposition steal a march on him here. He really should not have been beaten last time.
Mr Premier is an obvious danger, particularly if allowed to dictate matters. But with the wily Piere Strydom riding the talented Follow The Piper, we can’t see that happening. The prospect of an upset looks unlikely beyond the top three.
